Sturgeon ko, Scottish Labor rejoices
THE Nicola Sturgeon’s troubles could have profound repercussions for Scotland, but also for the United Kingdom as a whole. The political consequences are very direct, since the investigations have a connection precisely with Sturgeon’s attempt to organize a second referendum on Edinburgh’s independence. But the balance can also change in the London parliament.
The investigations are linked on the floor of the Scottish National Party to open a new channel of donations to help campaign for a new vote, dating back to 2017. In a couple of months, around £482,000 was raised. But with a snap election called then by Theresa May the SNP lost 21 seats in Westminster, a disappointing turnaround for a party that had hoped to capitalize on Scottish anger over Brexit.
The party abandoned its fundraising campaign for the second referendum just three months after it began and stopped accepting donations. The SNP said the money would be “reserved” for fighting a future referendum and that it would not be used to pay for the election campaign. Another donation portal for a second referendum was launched in 2019. Donations to this and the initial appeal would total £666,953, a figure which would repeat in subsequent years. Despite repeated calls by SNP activists and independence supporters for a referendum, this has not yet materialised. And those who donated their hard-earned money began to wonder what it was being spent on.
When the supervisory body of the CElectoral Omissions released the SNP’s accounts for 2019, in 2020, it revealed the party had just under £97,000 in the bank, despite “undisclosed” fundraising. SNP treasurer Colin Beattie promptly wrote to all donors, saying the funds “remain earmarked” for the referendum and are “woven” into the accounts. A number of high-profile resignations from the official ranks of the SNP would take place over the following year due to what they claimed was a lack of transparency.
Sturgeon’s fall redraws the balance in Westminster and postpones the referendum on Scottish independence
After that the police got involved, whose investigation led to the latest developments and the arrest of Sturgeon. What can happen now? Sturgeon’s fall appears to open up an unexpected opportunity for the Scottish Labor Party to regain ground. Party members and advisers said the prime minister’s recent decision to step down already gave them the perfect opportunity to secure an outright majority in the next general election.
Labor conquered just one seat in Scotland in the last election, but some members believe the party could win as many as 25 next time around, an outcome that could prove crucial in determining the balance of power in Westminster. This all comes against an already positive backdrop for Labour, as they have risen steadily in the Scottish polls over the past 18 months, rising from around 20% for much of 2021 to around 30% now.
Labor are particularly pleased with that the SNP is embarking on a long campaign for the leadership, in which party members they will want to hear about independence and the constitution. With support for independence waning in the general electorate, Labor believes this will dishearten many swing voters.
But even in London they could breathe a deep sigh of relief. The fall of Sturgeon and the investigations into the funds linked to the second referendum risk heavily damaging the SNP’s plan for a new popular consultation. Also because Labor opposes it. “It is unwanted and unnecessary, and we will campaign tirelessly to ensure that Scotland remain part of the UK. Independence would lead to full-blown austerity for Scottish families,” reads the centre-left party’s program plan.
“Scotland would face a £15bn deficit if the UK were broken up, hurting the poorest and most vulnerable in our society,” it continued. “L‘SNP must comply with the verdict of the majority of Scots in 2014 and abandon its divisive plan to repeat the referendum. He must keep working and reverse the cuts in Scotland’s public services. Scottish Labor will never support independence, because we believe together we are stronger.”
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