Ukraine, sovereigns divided on the position to be taken towards Russia
“For the Democratic Party Putin he is a bloodthirsty dictator … In my opinion Renzi is not even worth a little finger of the Russian president. In your opinion? “. Matteo Salvini wrote it on Facebook, or rather his social team wrote it on his page, on November 29, 2017. More than four years have passed since then. In between there was the case Savoiniwhich shed light on alleged relations between the League and the Kremlin, and, more recently, the new crisis over Ukraine.
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Now the different positions and feelings about Russia are likely to create some division in the Italian and European sovereign field. A few days ago, before the match for the Quirinale went live, the leader of the League expressed himself explicitly on the need to mend relations with Moscow. “Italy and Europe must return to having good relations with Russia. This does not mean abdicating sovereignty and human rights but having a good relationship with the main gas supplier. Draghi has the authority to do so”. He then added: “It would be nice to see at the same table Russia and the United States. I would not want the inaction to make it easier for China, which will dictate more and more forms, prices and lifestyles. I would like Italy to organize this confrontation between Russia and the US with energy at the center of the dossier “.
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All while Western allies look suspiciously at Moscow’s moves on the border with Ukraine, with the United States having repeatedly spoken of “imminent invasion”. In reality, in the last few hours, attempts have been made to restart the path of diplomacy and Russia has replied in writing to the letter received in turn by the US.
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But the dossier is far from cold. And it begins to involve new actors as well, more and more to the west. For instance Estonia. The Baltic country denounced a foray into its airspace by a Russian fighter. A Su-27 would have entered Estonian airspace near Vaindloo Island without permission for less than a minute. It had already happened other times in 2021. It is also Italy, as news has arrived of a Russian naval fleet passing through the Sicilian channel. The Defense General Staff specified that there was no violation of national sovereignty.
Ukraine crisis, signals from Russia between the Baltic and the Mediterranean
But the signal is clear, whether it is wanted or unwanted. Russia is present at different latitudes and we have to deal with it. In case of breakdown of diplomacy and escalation on Ukraine, everyone can risk something. In this scenario, the sovereign contingent tries to understand which side to take. The sensitivities are different and soon one should be forced to choose which side to be on, despite the desires for dialogue coming above all from some countries such as Germany and Italyalso identified by the allies as the softer and more elusive towards Moscow.
In the European context, it is precisely the differences over the relationship with Russia that are holding back the project of sovereign convergence in a single compact group. Traditionally, Poles are the most hostile to Moscow for obvious historical and political reasons. This is no small thing, given that the Polish Law and Justice party has a fundamental weight within theEurogroup of Conservatives and Reformists, the one of which Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy belongs.
The different positions on Russia between Polish-drawn sovereignists and Le Pen-driven sovereignists
What happened in recent days, during the Madrid summit between the sovereignists of the Eurogroup of Conservatives and Reformists and that of Identity and Democracy (of which the Rassemblement National by Marine Le Pen and Salvini’s League. The final document, on Polish push, is rather harsh on Russia, albeit more implicitly than explicitly. We read that the parties of the two groups “pledge to work together to ensure that the nations of Europe act in solidarity in the face of the threat of external aggression. Russian military on the eastern border of Europe they bring us to the brink of war. Faced with these threats, solidarity, decision and cooperation are necessary ”.
But there would be no great sharing within the forces that participated in the meeting. Starting right from Le Pen, another figure who, as is well known, is considered very close to the Kremlin. And then, of course, there is Viktor Orban who is perhaps the biggest thorn that avoids sovereign unity on the issue. Today, the Hungarian Prime Minister stands at Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin. Orban has a friendly relationship with Putin despite the geographical and diplomatic location of Budapest. Orban’s goal is to get Hungary an eye on the gas supply front.
The movements of Salvini and Meloni on Russia
The divisions are also reflected in the Italian front. Salvini, as mentioned, has always been in dialogue with Moscow. Although last year on some occasions the League had taken positions more in line with the dominant position in Brussels. For example, by voting in favor of a document proposed by a Lithuanian EPP MEP to “contain the Russian threat” and promote “the transformation of Russia into a democracy”.
Same thing done by the Brothers of Italy, which traditionally, however, has always been less vocal on Russian issues. It is known that Giorgia Meloni sees some affinity with the Kremlin, but she has never compromised herself in any way. In short, no cases Metropol but not even any declarations that could be considered biased in favor of Russia. Also because FdI, as mentioned, is part of the Eurogroup of Polish Conservatives and Reformists.
The League, on the other hand, appeared to be somewhat compromised on relations with Russia. So much so that it is rumored that the story may have played a role in the transition between end of Count I and beginning of Count II, with the White House that would have lost the possibility of launching the Northern League due to the talked about relations with the Kremlin. Not surprisingly from there Salvini it has given a distinctly anti-Chinese turn and, in fact, in part with actions that are also misaligned with Russia.
Now, however, Salvini has returned to ask for dialogue. With concrete reasons, too. And even Meloni recently declared that Russia has many things in common with Europe and that the “real danger” is China. But arriving at an explicit common position on the posture to have towards Russia is far from simple. The divisions are delaying and for now they represent an important obstacle to the longed-for and currently unattainable European sovereign union.
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