Russian attack | The Russian attack in Ukraine continues for the sixth month: HS tells what you should know about the war right now

Russian the attack in Ukraine continues for the sixth month. Russia’s attack, which began on February 24th, turned from a war of rapid advance into a war of attrition that was slogging through the spring.

During the summer, Russia has concentrated its forces in the Donbas region and Ukraine has received new military aid from the United States and other European countries. However, neither has succeeded in making a big breakthrough.

HS collected what you should know about the war at the beginning of August.

Russian attack and new strategy

Surprised by Ukraine’s defense, Russia had to withdraw its forces from the north around Kiev in the spring and concentrate its forces in eastern Ukraine. In early July, Russia managed to capture the entire Luhansk region, but it has failed in a significant breakthrough. Progress in Donbas has been slow.

Since the strategy adopted in April has not brought the desired result, British intelligence estimates that Russia is changing its approach in Donbas.

British intelligence and Ukrainian officials also believe that in August, Russia will move large numbers of its soldiers from Donbas to southern Ukraine, which is an economically more valuable region to the east.

“Ukraine’s economy requires a sea connection,” says Docent of Military Sciences, Visiting Researcher at the Alexander Institute of the University of Helsinki Ilmari Käihkö. “In the future, Ukraine could live without the east, but without the south it would be much more difficult.”

Russian the plans are not limited to eastern and southern Ukraine.

The US think tank ISW according to which Russia is possibly preparing an attack on Kharkiv towards the capital of the region. Located in northeastern Ukraine, Kharkiv is the second most populous city in Ukraine.

However, based on the slow progress in Donbas, ISW considers it highly unlikely that Russia would succeed either in conquering the Kharkiv region or the city of Kharkiv.

Ukrainian counterattack

There has been a lot of talk about a possible large-scale counterattack by Ukraine in July, both from international and Ukrainian sources. Kaihkö raises the number of Ukrainian troops to the center of a possible counterattack.

“Organizing the recapture of the lost territories requires thousands or even tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers,” he says.

“In the light of current information, it seems that Ukraine has not invested much in the mobilization and training of the troops, but it has only now become apparent when plans are being made to take back the land.”

Ukrainian According to Käihkö, the long-range weapon systems received, such as the Himars, help in the preparation of a large counterattack, so that they can be used to destroy Russian ammunition depots and command posts. By destroying these, Ukraine hopes that the Russian troops can be isolated, which would make their maintenance significantly more difficult.

For example, the communications director of the Armed Forces of Southern Ukraine Natalja Humenyuk has said that Ukraine has destroyed about 15 Russian ammunition depots in recent weeks.

Research director of world politics at the University of Helsinki Heikki Patomäki however, estimates that the Himars will not solve the war.

“In the end, the number of missiles is relatively small at the thousand-kilometer limit,” he says.

Ilmari Käihkön according to Ukraine needs victories for at least four reasons: It would raise its own morale and show the West its significance and functionality. In addition, a successful attack would undermine Russia’s narrative that Russia will win the war and disperse Russian forces to the regions of Kherson and Donbass.

According to Käihkö, Ukraine is not in an immediate hurry with a counterattack, but the time window of August and September has appeared a lot in the talks.

The important date by which Ukraine hopes to have achieved victories is September 11. At that time, regional and local elections will be organized in Russia, in connection with which it has been speculated that Russia will be able to organize national elections on the accession of some conquered regions to Russia.

Western support for Ukraine

The support of EU and NATO countries to Ukraine has been significant throughout the war. Kiel’s Institute of the World Economy until the beginning of July The total value of the military, humanitarian and financial support granted to Ukraine was more than 80 billion euros.

Ukraine has been supported the most by the United States, which by the beginning of July had promised military aid for just under 24 billion euros, humanitarian aid for just under nine billion euros, and economic support for just under ten billion.

Special interest has been focused on the Himars missiles sent by the United States, but Käihkö emphasizes that as the war drags on, Ukraine will need even more training aid in addition to military aid. For example, Britain has already said that it can train Ukrainian soldiers in large numbers.

Military and equipment losses and their repair

In a war of attrition, the parties try to destroy and kill as many enemies as possible and at the same time compensate for their own losses. Both Russia and Ukraine have suffered significant military and equipment losses.

Armed Forces of Ukraine according to the General Staff by the beginning of August, more than 41,000 Russian soldiers have fallen in the war. In addition, the General Staff announced that since February 24, Ukraine has destroyed a large amount of equipment from Russia, including more than 1,750 tanks, more than 4,000 other armored vehicles, more than 900 artillery systems, 174 cruise missiles, and more than 400 airplanes or helicopters.

Chairman of the US House Intelligence Committee Elissa Slotkin told last week to the CNN channel, that even more than 75,000 Russian soldiers would have been killed or wounded in Ukraine. More than 80 percent of Russia’s ground forces are stuck and the troops are tired, he said.

Ukrainian less information about the losses has become public.

In June, the president to Volodymyr Zelensky adviser Mihailo Podoljak said that Ukraine would lose a hundred to two hundred soldiers a day.

During the same month Axios wrotethat up to a thousand Ukrainian soldiers are killed or wounded every day in the Donbas battles.

There is no peace agreement in sight

Experts consider a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia highly unlikely. The reason is the fundamental differences in the countries’ goals.

The state and people of Ukraine are unwilling to make peace if it would mean ceding land to Russia. In a recent survey 84 percent of Ukrainians stated that they would not be ready for territorial concessions, even if they would bring peace.

Although Russia has focused its attack on the Donbas region during the summer, it has not changed its attitude towards Ukraine. Russia still does not interpret that Ukraine has the right to exist as a country and a nation.

Heikki Patomäki from the University of Helsinki also estimates that the focus of the EU countries and the United States that have supported Ukraine has been too much on war instead of peace.

“My own interpretation is that Ukraine has been encouraged to get a grip on the war, when the alternative would also be to encourage it to enter into peace negotiations with Russia.”

The effect of war on civilians

The Kremlin leadership has claimed that the Russian military does not strike civilian targets. However, during the first five months of the attack, Russia has attacked civilian targets 60 times more often than military targets, according to a member of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine disinformation center Unian.

In numbers, this means about 17.3 thousand attacks on civilian targets and about 300 on the military.

UN humanitarian according to the Office for the Coordination of Affairs, as of July 27, 12,200 civilians had been reported dead or injured in Ukraine. By the end of June, the UN had confirmed the deaths of around 4,700 civilians in Ukraine.

The war has also forced millions of Ukrainians to leave their homes. There are already more than 6.6 million Ukrainians who have fled their homes within the country. In addition, there are already almost 6.2 Ukrainian refugees in other European countries.

Economic effects of the war

Ukrainian the economic effects of the war are significant for the whole world, but especially for Ukraine.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) predict Russia that the gross domestic product, which measures the standard of living, will shrink by 6.0 percent this year, which is less than was estimated back in April. Although many countries have in principle expressed their opposition to Russia’s military actions, it still receives financial support from world trade.

“Russia is still able to trade with most of the world. Trade with India, for example, has grown significantly,” says Heikki Patomäki. “And at the beginning of the war, most of Russia’s income came directly from European energy exports.”

Russia is much richer than Ukraine, whose gross national product will collapse by an estimated 45 percent during the current year. In the future, Ukraine also faces reconstruction, which will cost hundreds of billions of euros.

“It has been proposed that Ukraine’s debts be forgiven. Money could also be promised for reconstruction as part of the peace agreement,” says Patomäki.

Grain transport and world food security

Ukrainian the war has deepened the world’s food crisis. Ukraine is a major exporter of grain, but after February, more than 20 million tons of grain were stuck in silos on Ukrainian territory.

Black Sea grain shipments stopped for months, but on Friday, July 22, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement to restart grain shipments. Just a day after signing the contract Russia struck however, I launched missiles into the port of Odessa.

The first grain shipment finally left the port of Odessa for Lebanon on Monday, August 1.