Russia|Foreign Policy Institute researcher Jussi Lassila estimates that Russia is trying to influence Finland’s support for Ukraine through intimidation.
Russians Telegram accounts and the Russian media have been claiming since Wednesday that the drone strike near the Olenja military airfield on Wednesday originated from Finland or Norway, and that Swedish reconnaissance planes had helped in it.
The messaging service Telegram shared information about the closure of the airports in Murmansk and Apatity due to an airplane attack.
According to Russian claims, two drones were shot down near the village of Vysok. Vysoki is located just southwest of the Olenja military field.
The Russian claims have been reported by Finnish and Swedish afternoon newspapers, among others Ilta-Sanomat, Evening newspaper, Aftonbladet and Expressen.
Foreign policy senior researcher at the institute Jussi Lassila sees the background of the claims as the fact that the Russian administration has increased its pressure on Finland.
“This is not the first time that Russia’s so-called war commentators, i.e. regular propagandists, have made claims that Finland is involved in attacks on Russia’s side,” he says.
“In other words, completely unsubstantiated claims are thrown out that fit the general picture, where Finland has become an enemy state or an unfriendly state after NATO membership.”
Lassila estimates that Russia’s disinformation shows a clear activation towards Finland, and the drone claims are part of this phenomenon. He reminds that emphasis is coordinated in the Russian media.
“It is not very far-fetched that the Russian presidential administration has instructions to increase the pressure on Finland. The local media and actors will then have a free hand in how to do it.”
I am the field was apparently attacked with airplanes for the first time in August.
At the time, it was even suspected that the airplane had been sent from within Russia’s borders. Wednesday’s attack on Olenja was the second in a row.
The airplane story circulating in Russia changed over the course of Wednesday.
Two versions circulated on Telegram, one of which said the drones came from Norway and the other from Finland. Also the governor of the Murmansk region Andrei Chibis confirmed that an attack had occurred.
According to Lassila, Finland now needs to be prepared for the fact that false claims from Russia will become more common.
“When Finland joined NATO, it came as a bit of a surprise how slowly Russia reacted to it. It probably had its own reasons, namely the failure of Russia’s first operations in Ukraine,” says Lassila.
“Now we see that the reaction comes after the fact. It’s clear frustration and kind of anger that this has happened. Don’t worry about it any more. Messages like this are one part of that.”
Second Lassila thinks that the reason for the increase in disinformation is that Russia is trying to break the unity of the West, especially in supporting Ukraine.
“In Russia, it is hoped that a discussion would begin in Finland about the fact that supporting Ukraine, and especially supporting that Ukraine be allowed to use long-range weapons on Russian territory, could lead to a dangerous escalation. In this, Russia has partially succeeded.”
Lassila does not see any risk of escalation. In his opinion, it is quite clear that Russia does not seek a military confrontation with NATO.
How should the media in Finland work so that they do not join the Russian disinformation campaign?
“By bringing to the fore what Russia’s supposed motives are, what Russia is looking for.”
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