Putin is playing a charade in the Baltic Sea; his tankers are surfacing and disappearing again. He has also reactivated a submarine. Russia is spreading fear.
Berlin – In the “NATOA shadow war is raging in the Baltic Sea, writes Christiane Kühl. In her opinion, the Baltic Sea has become a security hotspot, as the China expert writes in the weekly newspaper The Parliament Dilapidated tankers, Russian fighter jets, disruptive maneuvers, they list. At the same time, the magazine Politico a “catastrophe waiting to happen” – as a result of the Ukraine War is Vladimir Putin apparently forced to smuggle his ships through the Baltic Sea in order to stay under NATO’s radar. Something is brewing there.
Currently, three ships seem to be attracting the attention of the Baltic Sea countries at the same time, as European security and technology (ESUT) reported. According to the magazine, the Russian tankers “Yaz” and “General Skobelev” are again causing unrest in international waters. In addition, a Russian submarine cruised through the Fehmarn Belt at the end of August – the boat is said to have been the “Novorossiysk”, as ESUT reported. The purpose of the trip seems to be unclear, the destination is the Syrian port of Tartus.
“Novorossiysk” back in service: Putin sends submarine to Syria
What is remarkable about the sighting is that the ship has apparently returned to service. Before that, the submarine had been overhauled and modernized for two years in Kronstad near St. Petersburg and had not been involved in the Ukraine war. The “Novorossiysk” belongs to the Black Sea Fleet, which is operated by the Ukraine was successfully expelled from the Black Sea. Now it is apparently rejoining the Russian Navy’s Mediterranean task force.
“There they refuel, pump their cargo from one ship to another at sea – to conceal the origin of the oil – or just bob around. Sweden observed shadow tankers in its 200-nautical-mile economic zone equipped with communication equipment that is in no way needed by normal merchant ships.”
Since March 2024, Sweden As the newest member of NATO, the defense alliance thus exercises control over the island of Gotland – the springboard for the defense of the Baltics against Russia. That is why Moscow seems to be particularly interested in the island. Sweden is observing shadow tankers in its 200-nautical-mile economic zone that are equipped with communication devices that are not needed by normal merchant ships, writes Christiane Kühl: “They refuel there, pump their cargo from one ship to another at sea – to conceal the origin of the oil – or simply bob around.”
Experts assume that the freighters transport information as well as oil – in other words, they are spying. Basically, the “dark fleet” or “shadow fleet” was formed during the Ukraine war to circumvent European sanctions and transport Russian oil to Asia. The news magazine Mirror In July, the company estimated that there were between 600 and 1,400 ships within this fleet – based on information from the insurer Allianz Commercial.
Under false flag: Putin’s “soul sellers” threaten shipping
In addition to the military risk of espionage, observers see risks in the fact that the fleet consists primarily of “soul sellers” – some under foreign flags – “which operate outside international regulations and often without adequate insurance”, as the Mirror Justus Heinrich is quoted as saying. The head of shipping insurance in Germany and Switzerland at Allianz Commercial reports dozens of incidents, “including fires, engine failures, collisions, loss of control and oil pollution.” Costs that, in the worst case, would be passed on to the government of the neighboring country.
However, if the shadow ships collided with regular ships, these ships could also be the ones to suffer and be held liable for the salvage. Elisabeth Braw therefore sees this as a “risk for the global maritime order”, as she wrote for the Atlantic Council thin tank. The victims of these activities are Denmark and Norway, for example, which are on the routes of the shadow ships. The analyst quotes a ship insurer as saying that twelve shadow ships cruise through Norwegian waters alone every day.
“Syria Express” on the way: NATO concerned about the appearance of Russian warships
The Russian tankers “Yaz” and “General Skobelev” are sailing on the “Syria Express” and are therefore a familiar sight in this region. It is also normal that they had a rendezvous with the corvette “Stoikiy” between Brest and Dover and were escorted by it. But: This has “solidified the practice of Russian high-value units being covered by warships,” writes ESUT“the exact background of these movements remains unclear. The fact that they are guarded by Russian warships and other characteristics in particular make us suspicious.”
The magazine also seems to be alluding to the suspicion of espionage. According to international shipping regulations, ships exchange their nautical data via the AIS (Automatic Identification System). How ESUT writes that the “General Skobelev” disappeared from radar at the beginning of May; according to the magazine, the ship seemed to have stopped transmitting its identification. The incident occurred on a voyage from mid-April from the Russian Baltiysk to the Egyptian port of Port Said. In the Strait of Sicily, analysts apparently suddenly lost track of them.
Hybrid warfare: Putin may be planning a war he doesn’t have to fight
This is typical for ships of the “dark fleet”: manipulation of the positioning systems makes it difficult to determine their routes. The behavior of the Russian ships becomes opaque, the level of threat to NATO countries increases. The term “shadow war” was first publicly used by Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. This affects not only the sea but also aviation. Risky side effects in the Ukraine war have been Russia’s GPS interference that threatens civil aviation – when the instruments fail, the aircraft are flying blind for that time.
There is a consensus within NATO to deal with these disturbances decisively; Elisabeth Braw also speaks of provocations. China expert Christiane Kühl quotes Minna Ålander as saying that this “shadow war” could become a substitute for a real military conflict, which Russia may never be able to wage again due to a lack of forces. Ålander assumes that Putin is trying to destabilize the North Atlantic defense alliance.
The security expert at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs in Helsinki instead expects that Russia wants to win a war without actually having to fight it. She already sees signs of this “in Russia’s diverse hybrid warfare against many European countries,” said Ålander, according to the parliamentNurlan Aliyev sees no other option for Russia in the region to avoid hybrid warfare.
The security scientist at the Estonian think tank International Center for Defense and Security believes this is the only way left, even if Russia could bring Ukraine to its knees militarily. “It would continue to target their societies, especially their voters, in order to put pressure on the governments,” Aliyev writes.
The “shadow war” is underway: Putin apparently on course for a targeted provocation
According to the Mirror Denmark is examining the extent to which dilapidated oil tankers can be denied passage. However, the Danes only see a solution at the international level. Russia may also be aiming for just such a measure in order to feel forced into a defensive stance towards the world and to respond accordingly militarily. Then a nuclear strike would indeed be dangerously close.
For the magazine Politico Shipping journalist Elisabeth Braw has tried a pragmatic approach. In her opinion, the governments, especially those of the neighboring countries, and the shipping companies affected should document the costs they incurred as a result of the dark ships in Russia’s service. She assumes that after the Ukraine war, the Putin regime would be called upon to pay reparations to Ukraine anyway. Then the bills for the costs of the shadow ships should also be made due.
For Braw, this is the only solution, “since it would clearly not be a good idea to send rickety boats in retaliation to cause chaos in Russian waters.”
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