Survation survey indicates that the party is expected to surpass the historic mark of seats in Parliament, with 484 seats
The UK Labour Party, led by Keir Starmermust have a “historic victory” in the elections scheduled for Thursday (4.Jul.2024), according to research by Survation. The party is expected to secure 484 of the 650 seats in Parliament. If confirmed, it will surpass the record of 418 seats won when Tony Blair led the party in 1997.
In contrast, the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and who have been in power for 14 years, are expected to obtain only 64 seats. This would be the lowest number since their founding in 1834. The information is from Reuters.
In addition, the right-wing Reform UK is projected to win 7 seats.
Here is the seat estimate by party:
- Labour Party: 484 of 650 seats;
- Conservatives: 64 seats;
- Liberal Democrats: 61 seats;
- Scottish National Party: 10 seats;
- Reform UK: 7 seats;
- Plaid Cymru Party of Wales: 3 seats.
- Green Party of England and Wales: 3 seats.
Survation used the MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) technique to reach these conclusions, a methodology that estimates public opinion at local levels from large national samples. There were 34,558 interviews conducted online by telephone. Click here and read (in English) the technical notes of the research.
Labour’s lead signals that Starmer’s election campaign, which has seen him meet voters across the country, appears to have been well-received by Britons. He is the front-runner to replace Sunak as head of parliament.
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