This Sunday (10), voters in Portugal go to the polls in early elections, after President Marcelo Rebelo de Souza dissolved Parliament in January, as a result of Prime Minister António Costa's resignation due to a corruption scandal.
This weekend's vote promises to be fierce between the socialists, who have ruled the country for eight years, and the right, which has gained strength in recent months marked by investigations into illegalities involving the current administration.
A recent electoral survey by the Portuguese newspaper Ppolitician points out that the right-wing coalition Democratic Alliance, composed of the Social Democratic Party (PSD); Popular Party (CDS-PP); and the Popular Monarchist Party (PPM), must guarantee the majority of seats in the Legislature, with a voting intention that reaches 34%, against 28% for the Socialist Party (PS).
Another survey released at the end of February, by Instituto Pesquisas Paraná, also revealed an advantage for the opposition to the current administration in the vote. As a result, conservatives must play an important role in choosing the new government, in elections that are considered the most unpredictable in recent years.
After Costa's resignation in November last year, the socialists' main bet is Pedro Nuno Santos, the country's former Minister of Infrastructure, while Luís Montenegro leads the opposition Democratic Alliance, enjoying a narrow advantage at the polls, according to the latest polls.
In the scenario in which the elections were called, corruption appears to be a major concern for voters. However, opinion polls also point to other problems that are on the Portuguese radar: high housing prices and the decline in the country's public services.
Majority in Portugal's Parliament is unlikely for either side
Despite the conservatives' small advantage, neither side is expected to control the 116 seats in Parliament, the minimum number to form a government majority.
The Democratic Alliance still has the option of making an agreement with another right-wing party, Chega, however this hypothesis has been repeatedly rejected by the coalition. In polls, the right-wing Portuguese party appears in third place in terms of voting intentions and is considered one of the biggest political forces in the legislative elections.
The party has the support in Brazil of right-wing politicians, such as federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), who asked his leader, André Ventura, for votes from the Portuguese living in Brazil, in 2022, when they won 12 seats in Parliament .
In the event that the socialists obtain more votes at the polls, it is expected that smaller left-wing parties will strengthen ties with Santos in the formation of the new government. The leader of the Democratic Alliance has already stated that he will try to form a government if his party does not win this Sunday (10).
Another possibility for Montenegro to achieve this objective would be an alliance with the socialists in the formation of a center-right government in favor of the country's “stability”.
This is the last parliamentary vote by European Union (EU) countries before the European Parliament itself holds its elections in June. The early election also comes weeks before Portugal celebrates the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, which overthrew Salazarism and ushered in the country's democratic era.
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