Nuclear weapons | China started a huge nuclear arms buildup, and the United States is responding – A new era of armaments has begun, says a researcher

United States is considering expanding its nuclear arsenal. President Joe Biden aide announced on Friday evening Finnish time that the United States may have to deploy more strategic nuclear weapons to respond to the growing nuclear threat from China and Russia.

“We may reach a point in the coming years where an increase to the levels currently in use is required,” US National Security Council Arms Control Director Pranay Vaddi said according to news agency Reuters.

Vaddi’s statement is the clearest warning so far that the United States, in the tightening global political situation, is not content with just modernizing its nuclear arsenal, but is also preparing to expand it.

Are we entering a new era of nuclear armament?

“In a way, something like this is already underway, because China has started it,” says a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Jyri Lavikainen.

China has launched a huge nuclear weapons program, and the number of strategic nuclear weapons has sparked a debate in the United States.

Until now, the administration’s line has been that the new situation does not require an increase in the number of nuclear warheads.

“It may be that the analysis of the Biden administration is now being updated,” Lavikainen estimates.

in the United States currently has around 1,700–1,800 nuclear warheads and 700 launch pads in operational readiness, Lavikainen says. In addition, there are an estimated couple of thousand nuclear warheads in stock, which can be transferred to launch platforms. They could be deployed without the production of new nuclear weapons.

The number of US strategic nuclear weapons is based on the New Start agreement, which the US and Russia signed unilaterally in 2010.

At that time, the United States’ nuclear weapons strategy was mainly aimed at Russia. The targets were Russia’s nuclear armed forces, certain targets of the armed forces, the military industry and targets of the political and military leadership.

Now China’s massive equipment has entered the picture, and the United States must be able to create a convincing nuclear deterrent against the two main players. However, the arsenal is still sized only against Russia.

According to Lavikainen, China and partly North Korea are therefore the main reasons why the United States is preparing to deploy more strategic nuclear weapons.

Somewhere to a certain extent, Russia has also started new nuclear weapons, Lavikainen estimates. Although the number of Russian nuclear weapons has decreased during the 21st century, new capabilities have been acquired.

Russia announced last year that it would suspend compliance with the Uusi Start agreement. The use of nuclear weapons has flashed in Russian speeches since Russia started a full-scale war in Ukraine last year. In addition, Russia is suspected of developing a nuclear-tipped anti-satellite weapon to be placed in space.

The Start contract expires at the beginning of 2026, and no one actually believes that it will be replaced by anything.

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The situation with three big players is more unstable than during the Cold War.

Warnings it is also worth noting in Finland, Lavikainen says.

If the United States were to go to war against China and lose both its armed forces and the performance of its nuclear deterrent, the United States, still acting as the supreme guarantor of European security, would not necessarily be able to offer Europe the protection it is used to.

In such a gap, Russia could consider whether it would be worthwhile to launch an operation similar to the one in Ukraine elsewhere in Europe.

Thus, the possibility of a war between the United States and China means that European countries must strongly strengthen their own defense capabilities. At the same time, strengthening the conventional defense capability would mitigate the probability of using nuclear weapons, Lavikainen points out.

“If the conventional armed forces are powerful enough to carry out the task, the decision to use nuclear weapons does not even have to be considered.”

Sloppy does not believe that a situation like the Cold War will be drifted into. A huge nuclear arsenal is expensive and not very useful.

But the situation with three big players instead of two is fundamentally more unstable than during the Cold War. Two close partners – China and Russia – may find it beneficial to be in a situation where together they are superior to the United States.