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Conservatives, social democrats and liberals are the strongest in the new EU Parliament. They will now decide among themselves who will fill the top positions.
Brussels – The job-swapping after the European elections has long since begun. Attention is focused primarily on Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She would represent the European People’s Party (EPP), which is once again the strongest force in the EUParliament and is therefore laying claim to her post, would like to serve a second term. Whether she gets the opportunity to do so depends largely on who is filling the other top EU posts.
Important, indeed indispensable, for an extension of Von der Leyen’s term of office is the approval of the heads of government of the two largest EU countries – neither of which are conservatives: Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel MacronThe former is facing criticism in light of the SPD’s poor performance in the European elections. In general, he is struggling with coalition partners, democratic opposition and right-wing enemies of the constitution. It is therefore unlikely that the Chancellor will put forward an alternative candidate to Von der Leyen.
If Von der Leyen is to remain Commission President, concessions are needed
Macron once paved the way for Von der Leyen to head the Commission. He currently has enough to do with domestic affairs, having called for new elections for the National Assembly in response to the landslide victory of the right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) in the European elections in France. Nevertheless, he is said to be working behind the scenes to support Mario Draghi, the former head of the ECB and Italian Prime Minister, as Von der Leyen’s successor.
The CDU politician and incumbent must be proposed to the EU Parliament by a qualified majority of at least 16 votes from the European Council – the body of EU heads of state and government – in order to have a chance of being re-elected as Commission President. This means that the 13 conservative governments in Europe must find at least three other governments that do not belong to their party family but are willing to support Von der Leyen.
Positions of EU Council President for S&D and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs for Renew
The promise of other top EU posts could convince members of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group, to which Scholz’s SPD belongs, and the liberal Renew group, in whose ranks Macron’s Renaissance can be found. As in the 2019 European elections, they became the second and third strongest forces after the EPP, with which they also worked together in the last legislative period.
At that time, the Belgian liberal Charles Michel was given the post of President of the European Council and the Spanish social democrat Josep Borrell was given the post of High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. It is quite possible that S&D and Renew will now swap these posts in consultation with the EPP, because both incumbents have to go, but suitable successors can only be found from the other camp.
Portuguese Costa and Estonian Kallas are said to have the best chances
The Portuguese Social Democrat António Costa is considered to have the best chances of winning the Council Presidency. He resigned as his country’s prime minister at the end of 2023 due to corruption allegations, which, however, proved to be unfounded. In contrast to the incumbent, Charles Michel, he is said to maintain good relations with all EU heads of state and government.
The only real competition he could face from his own political camp would be the Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen who is, however, still in the middle of her term of office. The name Mario Draghi has also been mentioned in relation to this position, but it seems unlikely that S&D will forego the appointment in favour of the non-party Italian.
At Renew, Kaja Kallas as the new EU foreign policy chief. The Estonian prime minister is, however, known for her clear position and sharp language towards Russia, which not all EU member states are equally happy with. One candidate could therefore be Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, whose coalition was defeated in national elections on the very day of the European elections. De Croo has already resigned and would be available for new tasks.
Maltese Metsola is likely to become President of the EU Parliament again
However, it is considered quite likely that the EPP, as the strongest group, will also claim the office of President of the Parliament. Similar to the office of Commission President, continuity seems to be the aim here: Maltese MEP Roberta Metsola is to be re-elected.
The heads of state and government of the member states will negotiate for the first time at a special summit on 17 June on the appointment of the EU Commission Presidency, the Presidency of the European Council and the post of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs. At the first plenary session of the newly elected EU Parliament between 16 and 19 July, the members of parliament will then probably vote on the new President of the Parliament. By 1 December at the latest, when the President of the European Council takes office, it should be clear who will get which top positions. (MicKis)
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