Eastern Ukraine includes in many of its regions densely populated regions of Russian origin, such as the Donbass region, which consists of the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, which were recognized by Moscow before the start of its military operation.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan expected a large-scale incursion of Russian forces into eastern Ukraine to control the Donbass region.
According to observers and military experts, the first military objective of Moscow has been and has been since the beginning of the war, which is the control of Donbass, and that the Russians focus on achieving this goal, which was reflected in the Russian announcements of the partial withdrawal of forces from the vicinity of Kyiv and other areas in northern Ukraine, in favor of Intensification of the offensive in the eastern front, adjacent to the border.
Many believe that Moscow, in light of the impossibility of achieving the scenario of controlling all of Ukraine, especially the capital, Kyiv, is now content with achieving its goal, which was the reason for starting the war, as it says, which is to protect the Russians in eastern Ukraine and guarantee their rights by controlling the east of the country.
Commenting on the possibilities of starting a massive Russian attack on eastern Ukraine, and the division of Ukraine that might lead to it, Maher Al-Hamdani, a researcher and expert in European affairs, said in an interview with “Sky News Arabia”: “Since the beginning of the war and even before it, the Russians confirm that they have no ambitions in Ukrainian lands, and Russia already seems to have no need for additional geographical areas, being the largest country in the world, but it has red lines in front of NATO regarding Ukraine in particular, and these lines Moscow is now working to draw.
With regard to the republics of Lugansk and Donetsk, which were recognized by Moscow before the start of the war, Al-Hamdani said: “It is absolutely clear that such a decision to recognize them will not be undone, and what is happening in reality is even greater and further than this issue, as Moscow has a set of strategic goals and objectives from Its military action in Ukraine, the most important of which is the demilitarization of Kyiv and the establishment of a political system in it that is reconciled and cooperative with Moscow, or at worst not hostile to it.
Al-Hamdani added: “The most likely scenario is the division of Ukraine, eastern directly affiliated with Russia, and western pro-Western. Thus, we are often faced with reproducing the Korean scenario in Ukraine, where the Korean Peninsula has been divided for seven decades amid the failure of all attempts and negotiations to reunify it.”
He continued, “This Russian operation does not have precisely declared military objectives so that they can be fully identified, but it has clear and declared political objectives, the most important of which is ensuring Ukraine’s neutrality, preventing it from entering NATO, and protecting the Russian-majority areas in eastern Ukraine.”
For her part, the researcher in international relations, Lana Badfan, considered that “Russia is proceeding according to its military plans laid down since the beginning of this war, which is based mainly on controlling the areas in which there is a large proportion of people supporting it in eastern Ukraine, and for this we have not seen any serious Russian military progress towards The capital, Kyiv, Odessa and other cities, as it is not in Russia’s interest to expand towards areas relatively far from its borders with Ukraine, especially since Ukrainian forces are heavily deployed there, and the majority of the population in those areas is against Russian intervention, unlike most residents of the east of the country.
Pavan indicated that: “After the start of the tactical Russian withdrawal from around Kyiv, which was surrounded by Russian forces and repositioning, Moscow is now focusing more on the eastern regions such as the Donbass region and some southern regions in Ukraine such as Mariupol, making great progress, for example, in Luhansk, it is almost in control of the 90 percent, and in Donetsk its advance reached 65 percent, and although there are ongoing fierce battles in eastern Ukraine, but the Russians and their loyalists in Donbass are making remarkable and broad progress, and the announcement of the new crowds appears as a prelude to an attempt to take complete control of Donbass.
On Monday, the governor of Lugansk region, Sergey Gaday, warned that Russian forces were preparing to launch a “massive attack” on Ukrainian forces in that region in eastern Ukraine.
The Ukrainian authorities had said Saturday that the Russian forces were withdrawing from areas in northern Ukraine, especially in the vicinity of the capital, Kyiv, to focus their invasion in the east and south of the country.
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