NATO | Russia threatened to shoot down a French plane in the Black Sea, accuses France – How big are the risks for Finns going to the region?

Russian air surveillance system recently threatened to shoot down a French plane in the Black Sea, the French defense minister Sébastien Lecornu told in a radio interview on Thursday.

The news is a continuation of information that has become public from time to time about risky situations between Russia and NATO countries in the Black Sea.

We remember from last year case, in which two Russian fighter jets jammed a US aircraft in the Black Sea, according to the US, by flying in front of it and spraying fuel towards the aircraft. The plane was flying in international airspace.

Finally, a Russian fighter jet hit the propeller of the airplane, and the airplane fell into the sea. According to Russia, its fighters were not in contact with the aircraft.

British Broadcasting Corporation The BBC, on the other hand, reports in the fall of 2023, that a Russian plane had tried to shoot down a British Air Force surveillance plane in the Black Sea because it believed it had permission to shoot. The incident happened in the fall of 2022 in international airspace. Russia told at the time According to the BBC, the reason is a technical fault.

Finnish fighters are leaving in the summer NATO air defense missions to the Black Sea.

Tensions in the region are evident after the Russian war of aggression has continued in Ukraine for two years.

How big are the risks associated with the tasks?

Finland is sending a maximum of eight fighters and a hundred personnel to Romania, Bulgaria and the Black Sea in the summer. It is about the so-called peacetime joint defense tasks of NATO.

The Finnish aviation department would rely on the Mihail Kogalniceau base, which is located in the southeastern part of Romania.

Parliament deals with the Government Council at the moment report About Finland's participation this year.

According to the report, the general risk level of participating in tasks in the Black Sea region “corresponds to the tasks of securing regional integrity carried out from home”.

The difference is that the operation would be carried out closer to the active war zone than in Finland.

“However, emergency air surveillance duties are only carried out in low-risk sea areas and in the areas of NATO member states.”

Estimate is that provocations in air traffic control duties are possible, though unlikely.

“In addition to provocations, unprofessional flight operations can also occur, which have been observed in the Black Sea,” the report says.

Finland participates in the so-called Air Shielding operation in the region. The risks of the exercises included in it are estimated to be similar to those of other international exercises.

At the same time, the report states that, in a potentially tightening security situation, a direct military threat against departments performing NATO missions cannot be ruled out.

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The assessment is that provocations in air traffic control duties are possible, although unlikely.

of the French Minister According to the spokesperson of the French Armed Forces, the situation that was brought to light recently from the Black Sea was about an incident in mid-November.

A French AWACS surveillance plane flew in international airspace over the Black Sea, news agency AP reported. The spokesperson described the threat as coming in a radio conversation that was “particularly aggressive”. According to him, the case was the first of its kind for the French in that area.

Minister Sébastien Lecornu said RTL channel in an interview, that Russia's behavior in 2024 “will no longer be the same as what was seen in 2022”.

This is because Russia is in trouble on the battlefield in Ukraine, he stated.

What is Finland's assessment of the risk level in the Black Sea based on?

Specialist Outi Mäkinen from the Ministry of Defense says that an analysis of peacetime tasks has been done in the defense administration, as is done with all tasks. The results are recorded in the report.

Regarding the Black Sea mission, Mäkinen underlines that Finland's emergency shifts take place in a low-risk area.

“The Black Sea is divided into sectors, and Finland will only operate there in the sector with the lowest risk,” says Mäkinen.

For example, Britain, with whom Finland operates in the region, also operates in other regions, says Mäkinen.

According to Mäkinen, what makes Finland's operating area low-risk cannot be opened up in more detail. He also does not comment on whether, for example, Finns and French operate in different types of areas.

The big picture is that we are closer to an active war zone in the Black Sea than when operating in Finland, Mäkinen repeats the report's message.

“NATO has increased its presence, especially in the eastern parts of the alliance, and it is important that we also have a presence there in Romania, Bulgaria and the Black Sea. And Finland bears the responsibility. It's a big picture from our point of view.”

In reporting it is stated that, in a potentially tightening security situation, a direct military threat against departments performing NATO missions cannot be ruled out.

Are there any signs that the security situation is tightening? The situation between the Russians and the French was described as the first of its kind.

“We are constantly evaluating the situation. If the security situation tightens, unfortunately, a direct threat cannot be completely ruled out. But as the report shows, our assessment is that the risk is quite low at the moment.”

Finland will also send a Katanpää-class ship during the spring to NATO's permanent mine countermeasures mission in the Baltic Sea as part of peacetime missions.

“The direct military threat in the Baltic Sea region is currently assessed as low. However, the military presence and activity of the West attract countermeasures”, the report states about this.

Correction 24.2. at 9:47 a.m.: Corrected the quote “it is important to be present there in Romania, Bulgaria and the Black Sea” to “in Romania, Bulgaria and the Black Sea”.