Projected areas of impact extend from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean and west to the eastern coast of the United States.
Known as 2023 DW, the asteroid was first discovered on February 26, according to the European Space Agency. It has now been added to the agency’s Hazard List, a catalog of space objects that could have some kind of impact on Earth, and because of what scientists have seen so far – it currently ranks first on the list.
But that doesn’t mean catastrophic damage is imminent. Asteroid 2023 DW has a Torino Scale rating of 1, which means it’s not currently expected to present an “extraordinary level of danger,” according to the scale.
Researchers believe that it is about 50 meters in diameter – the length of an Olympic swimming pool.
The European Space Agency currently estimates that the asteroid has a 1 in 607 chance of impacting Earth.
According to the European Space Agency, the earliest the asteroid can hit Earth is no more than two decades away. The asteroid is expected to impact Earth on Valentine’s Day 2046. It is also likely to affect Valentine’s Days after that – from 2047 to 2051, according to for a list of risks.
NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office says it has been tracking the asteroid and that the risk of it colliding with Earth in 2046 remains “extremely small.”
“Often when new objects are first discovered, it takes several weeks of data to reduce uncertainties and adequately predict their orbits years into the future,” the office stated on Twitter.
For his part, astronomer Piero Ciccoli said he believes there is a “one in 400 chance” that the asteroid will have an actual impact.
And his calculations map—which can change over time—show that if the asteroid hits Earth, it could lie anywhere between the Indian Ocean to the east coast of the United States.
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