06/24/2024 – 9:08
Analysts consulted by the Central Bank once again raised the prospects for inflation and the dollar in the Focus survey released this Monday, 24th, maintaining the scenario for monetary policy.
The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, showed that Expectations for the IPCA rise rose to 3.98% and 3.85% respectively in 2024 and 2025. In the previous week, the accounts were at 3.96% and 3.80%.
The center of the official target for inflation in 2024, 2025 and 2026 is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.
A Outlook for the dollar this year rose for the second week in a row and was R$5.15from R$ 5.13 before, after the North American currency accumulated a rise of 1.12% last week, reaching an increase of 12.15% in 2024. In 2025 the dollar began to be calculated in R R$5.15, from R$5.10 the previous week.
For the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the growth estimate this year rose to 2.09%, with an upward adjustment of 0.01 percentage points. The estimate for economic growth in 2025 continues to be an expansion of 2.0%.
Market sees Selic at 10.5% until the end of the year
The weekly survey of a hundred economists also showed that the Selic basic interest rate will end this year at 10.5% and next year at 9.5%.
Last week, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to maintain the Selic basic interest rate at 10.5%, interrupting the cycle of monetary easing after seven consecutive reductions.
This Tuesday, the 25th, the BC will release the minutes of the meeting that decided to pause the cuts in the Selic.
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