Gleich der erste Auftritt des iranischen Präsidenten auf der Weltbühne sorgte für Ärger in Teheran. Das Außenministerium sah sich zu einem Dementi gezwungen, nachdem die Nachrichtenagentur Bloomberg getitelt hatte, Massud Peseschkian habe gesagt, Iran sei bereit, die Spannungen mit Israel abzubauen. Wortwörtlich hatte der Präsident in einer Pressekonferenz bei der UN-Generalversammlung in New York gesagt, „wir sind bereit, all unsere Waffen niederzulegen, unter der Bedingung, dass Israel das Gleiche tut und dass eine internationale Organisation kommt und in der Region für Sicherheit sorgt“.
Offensichtlich waren seine Worte nicht mit den Machthabenden in Teheran abgestimmt. Außenminister Abbas Araghchi behauptete prompt, der Präsident habe sie gar nicht geäußert. Iran werde Libanon „angesichts der Aggression des zionistischen Regimes […] in an all-encompassing manner,” Araghchi clarified in an interview with the Tasnim news agency. The minister characterized the ongoing Israeli air strikes as attacks on the country of Lebanon and not on Hezbollah, Iran’s most important ally in the “Axis of Resistance.”
Peseschkian’s choice of words deviates from the official language
The Shiite militia financed by Tehran, with its technologically advanced missile arsenal, is a central pillar of Iran’s deterrent capabilities against Israel. Any sustained weakening of Hezbollah would weaken Iran. The threat of war between Israel and Hezbollah therefore has a direct impact on Iranian security considerations and could fuel the debate in the country about nuclear deterrence.
Externally, Tehran has so far avoided anything that could be interpreted as direct intervention in the fighting. The leadership sees the Israeli air strikes in Lebanon as a “trap” to draw Iran into a war with Israel. They want to avoid that. At the same time, Tehran is under pressure to demonstrate strength and solidarity with Hezbollah. The supposed message of peace from Peseschkian, who is inexperienced in foreign policy, does not fit into Tehran’s concept at all. He himself said in the press conference, “I am not very skilled in politics.”
His choice of words was already out of character because he called Israel “Israel” and not, as is customary in Tehran, the “Zionist regime”. Peseschkian’s words are grist to the mill of Iranian hardliners who are irritated that Tehran has not yet acted on its promised retaliation for the murder of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the end of July. From the hardliners’ point of view, Tehran’s inaction makes the country appear weak and encourages Israel to strike ever harder against Iranian interests – as is now the case in Lebanon.
Iran’s ambassador was involved
Iran’s reaction has so far been cautious. The commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, predicted a “crushing response from the axis of resistance” for Israel, but did not mention any Iranian involvement. Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said Iran would provide moral support to the “resistance”.
Iran’s efforts to portray itself as uninvolved to the outside world were already evident a week ago, when thousands of pagers exploded in the hands and pockets of Hezbollah members. One of these explosions injured Iranian ambassador Mojtaba Amani in the face and provided unnecessary proof of the close cooperation between the Shiite organization and Iran’s diplomatic mission. In countries such as Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, Iranian ambassadors also represent the interests of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Last but not least, Hezbollah was built up significantly in the 1980s by the then Iranian ambassador to Syria.
More than 120,000 missiles and drones
But Iran’s support is based on the principle of deniability. This allows Tehran to put pressure on Israel through Hezbollah without being targeted itself. That is why Iran claimed that the ambassador was only slightly injured. This is obviously not true. According to state media, he is still being treated in the country’s best eye clinic by leading eye surgeon Hassan Ghazizadeh Hashemi. This seems to confirm what a source with access to the ambassador’s circle told the FAZ: that Amani had lost an eye.
It can be assumed that the Revolutionary Guard is closely involved behind the scenes in the strategic decisions of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. When Israel and Hezbollah went to war in 2006, the Quds commander Qassem Soleimani, who was responsible for the Revolutionary Guard’s foreign missions, rushed to Beirut to get an idea of the situation at the front and to plan operations with Nasrallah. When Israel killed Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut in July, a member of the Guard was with him and also died. Preparations for a possible escalation were probably already underway at that time.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran has delivered additional anti-tank missiles to Lebanon in recent months out of fear of an Israeli ground offensive. Experts estimate that Hezbollah’s arsenal, which has been delivered from Iran via Syria over decades, includes more than 120,000 missiles and drones. Iran initially supported the founding of Hezbollah as part of its policy of exporting the Islamic Revolution. The Shiite organization is now considered the “crown jewel” of Iran’s network of influence in the region.
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