September 25, 2024 | 2:40 PM
READING TIME: 3 minutes
Israel opens up to the possibility of a ground invasion of Lebanon against Hezbollah. An invasion that many in the security apparatus have been calling for for some time, also based on what is foreseen by a plan that has been in the works for yearsnearly ten. This is according to what the Washington Post writes, citing former officials and analysts.
The plan against Hezbollah ready for a decade: “Now everything comes back”
“A full-scale conflict seems increasingly inevitable as the months pass since Oct. 7 of last year. With Hamas cornered in Gaza, Israel’s plan is starting to come to fruition,” the American newspaper wrote. “The plan has been in the military’s hands for years. Every time we came close to implementing it, there were strings attached. Now it all comes back together. The question is what comes next?” said Miri Eisin, a former military intelligence officer who is up to speed on the developments.
The approximately 1,500 targets hit in Israeli airstrikes in recent days in Lebanon are part of detailed war scenarios that were meticulously planned over time, Eisin added. “Hamas did what everyone expected Hezbollah to do on October 7,” he stressed. The implementation of the plans began a few days after October 7, he said. At that time, it was Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who backed down, fearing an overextension of the IDF.
Netanyahu’s Fears and Benefits
Netanyahu was not in favor of an all-out confrontation with Hezbollah, fearing he would have to fight on two fronts and become bogged down in another costly and inconclusive war in Lebanon. Those risks remain, but acting now offers political advantages: more time for the prime minister to rebuild his damaged reputation, delay a possible post-October 7 commission of inquiry, and divert public attention from the grueling war in Gaza and the conditions of the hostages remaining in the Strip.
Israel also believes that Hezbollah and its backing Iran have no desire for an all-out war, adds Yossi Kuperwasser, former director of the Israel Defense Forces research center. “We were the first to escalate and that worked to our advantage. We entered a new phase, breaking the rules,” he added, referring to routine border skirmishes between Israel and Lebanon that have been ongoing since Oct. 7.
The countdown to war
Things took on a new rhythm in late July with Israel’s assassination of Fuad Shukr, which set off, as Eisin puts it, the countdown to war. Attacks on pagers and walkie-talkies quickened the pace.
Israel is not eager to launch a ground invasion and would prefer a diplomatic solution, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, said yesterday. “As we speak, there are important forces trying to present ideas and we are open to that process,” he said.
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