In a moment when Germany awaits the Russian-induced gas crisis and watches offensive moves by Ukrainian troops towards the Black Sea in the sixth month of the war in Ukraine, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd faces the next, even more frightening conflict in view – that between America and the western world on the one hand and China under its President Xi Jinping on the other.
Rudd studied sinology, speaks Mandarin, has just submitted a doctoral thesis to Oxford on Xi’s Leninist-influenced world view, and was Prime Minister of Australia twice for a total of three years – the country that, due to its relative geographical proximity to China, was the first to feel the effects of its neighborhood felt. Australia’s role has been that of the canary in the mine, acting as an alarm when air is running low, says Rudd.
At the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine, there was great concern in the democratic world that Xi Jinping would seize the opportunity and attempt to incorporate the island into the People’s Republic of China with a military attack on Taiwan. Rudd says in an interview with the FAZ that if you compare the war in Ukraine with a possible conflict over Taiwan, the differences are greater than the similarities. On the one hand, Ukraine has been a recognized sovereign state since 1991 at the latest, while Taiwan is seen under the One China doctrine.
On the other hand, Taiwan has long been a stable, vibrant democracy. It is certain that the Chinese leadership under Xi was impressed by the Western world’s unified response to Putin’s aggression. But at the same time, when it comes to Taiwan, China is very much following its own schedule. And that doesn’t mean trading next month or next year. But he was very concerned about the increasing signs that this could happen later this decade or early next.
“Avoid a random escalation”
Xi is now learning that there is surprising European solidarity with Ukraine and economic and financial sanctions against Russia are being enforced despite the looming energy crisis. Above all, however, this leads to the learning effect that China must be armed against such reactions if it ever wants to attack Taiwan. The former Australian prime minister smiles as he predicts that European countries may soon face a Chinese charm offensive to allay recent suspicions.
Rudd has just published a book entitled The Avoidable War, which, after a strategic analysis, proposes how competition and conflict between Xi’s China and the American-led democratic world can be steered into orderly, non-military escalating channels. He states that in the near future it is important to avoid a random escalation, which could arise from a military incident near Taiwan or in the South China Sea.
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