Wednesday, September 11, 2024, 10:24
Less than two months ago, many Democratic voters in the United States had thrown in the towel: Joe Biden was going to lose the elections next November due to his increasing physical and – at least apparently – mental decrepitude. The fiasco of his debate with Donald Trump confirmed the worst predictions, and even in this very space I gave the Republican as a sure winner in a confrontation with the current president.
But the situation has changed. Perhaps we cannot speak of a 180-degree turn, but there are reasons to think that Kamala Harris will present a battle with renewed chances of winning. Last night’s debate, in which the Democrat beat the Republican, has served to certify it. Now, the polls suggest a very close fight, with two candidates close to 50% of the votes and a thrilling race that will surely be decided in the usual key states.
But what is interesting is to see how, unlike what happened in previous elections, Americans will have to choose between two candidates with ideologies substantially more distant from each other: they can give power for the first time to a woman, also a woman of color – not black, as some say – and born into a middle-class family, or give it back to a millionaire man who represents the most radical neoliberalism and the most conservative values.
The ideological differences between the two candidates are substantially greater than those between Bill Clinton and George Bush Sr. or Bob Dole, and Barack Obama and John McCain or Mitt Romney. They all played in the centre of the American political spectrum, whereas now the positions are further apart.
That’s why today we’re focusing on this change and on the surprises that Elon Musk and Vladimir Putin have given with their entry into the campaign.
These are the three topics we will address:
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Democrats regain hope
The US presidential race changes completely
Americans themselves, including those who vote for him, recognize that Donald Trump is a key element of the growing polarization that their society is experiencing, which began during the electoral campaign that pitted him against Hillary Clinton. In 2020, when I traveled around part of the country to do a series of reports prior to the clash between the tycoon and Joe Biden at the polls, the confrontation had come to blows in many cases.
Now, after such shameful episodes as the assault on the Capitol or the long string of trials for various crimes that Trump has faced – with convictions for some of them – this year’s date at the polls is expected to be high voltage. In fact, it could be decided by a handful of votes, giving wings again – if Trump loses – to those who claim that the results have been rigged to benefit Harris. No one should be surprised if that happens.
It is curious how outside the United States the contest is interpreted in terms of the European left and right, when the precepts of Kamala Harris – the ‘left’ of the two – are closer to those of the Popular Party than to those of the PSOE, which for Americans is an almost Marxist-Leninist party. Yes, Harris is committed to more social policies and a more progressive vision, with measures such as the decriminalization of abortion, but always within what is permissible within American ultra-capitalism, in a much more puritanical society influenced by religion. The same thing happened with Obama.
Trump, on the other hand, is not the PP but Vox, AfD or Le Pen’s National Front: he wants to reduce taxes and the weight of the State to the bare minimum, stop the arrival of immigrants and withdraw from the international scene because it is expensive. But he may be weighed down by the fact that he repeats the promises with which he came to power 8 years ago. Including his slogan ‘Make America Great Again’, which already sounds old and refers to a mandate in which he demonstrated his inability to do everything he wants. Fortunately, the separation of powers works and different courts stopped him.
Now, however, Trump is coming with key bodies that are much more to the right, such as the Supreme Court, and with the ‘2025 project’ in mind: a plan to give more powers to the presidency and take them away from the institutions that act as a counterweight. Trump said in the debate that he has not even read its content, but his vice presidential candidate, JD Vance, seems to support it and that is worrying many sectors of the country.
For now, what Trump needs is to continue to attract attention. Because, as various analysts have pointed out, the worst thing he can do is bore his voters. He has to continue to give eye-catching headlines, because the halo that has accompanied him since his assassination attempt may not last until November. And that advances a dirty and angry campaign.
Harris has managed to catch him off guard, however, and this morning (Spanish time) she has shown that she has the elegance that the tycoon lacks. It is enough to get the Democrats who did not want to vote for Biden to go to the polls, the same thing that will happen with some Republicans – I already met a few in 2020 – who are horrified by the populism of their candidate.
Unfortunately, Trump’s way of doing politics is catching on elsewhere. Neoliberal populism has reached the highest levels of histrionics under Argentine President Javier Milei – capable of rivalling that of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela – and there are more and more examples in different countries. That does seem to be a tide that is impossible to stop.
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The power of networks
Elon Musk takes off his mask
Elon Musk has never been very active in politics. He admits it himself. And when he was active, it was to support the Democratic Party. Now, however, he has made a swerve worthy of study. “If we want freedom and meritocracy, Trump must win,” he says. And to achieve that goal, his account on the old Twitter account, where he has almost 200 million followers, has become one of the main spokespersons for the Republican candidate, who has already announced what Musk’s role will be if he wins the election: he will be in charge of reforming the Administration to make it more economical and less redundant. Musk has named it the “department of government efficiency,” delighted to receive that mission.
It is no small matter that the richest man on the planet supports a specific candidate in the country where elections are won with a penny. And even more so when he controls one of the main social networks on the planet, where any message can be published with hardly any moderation, and some of the most important companies in the new economy: from Tesla’s electric cars – which Trump has already promised to promote, despite the fact that it goes against his ideology – to the conquest of other planets with SpaceX, one of Musk’s great obsessions along with the demographic collapse.
Now, all the billionaire’s darts are aimed at the same target. “I keep forgetting that Biden is technically still running the country,” he tweeted on Sunday night. “The right to bear arms is there to protect freedom of speech and prevent a tyrannical government from taking away our rights,” he said in the morning. And so on. Musk has become an unexpected champion of American conservatism. “With the right measures, America will enter a golden age,” he announced yesterday.
In any case, the businessman knows that it will not be easy to achieve his goal. “Kamala Harris has exceeded people’s expectations,” he acknowledged on X. In addition, he will face another heavyweight who today made it clear that he will do everything possible to prevent it: Taylor Swift is the counterweight to Musk on the Democratic side.
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From Russia with sarcasm
Putin trolls the campaign
Even more unexpected has been the support that Vladimir Putin has given to Kamala Harris, whom he considers his favourite candidate. In theory it makes little sense, and the half-smile with which he said it makes one think that the Russian president, accused of being behind Trump’s first victory in 2016, is trolling the Democrat. What’s more, not even Trump believes it. “The Russian invasion of Ukraine would never have happened if I were president. I know Putin well, and I was very offended that he gave his support to Kamala. But he is a chess player,” he said.
And he may be right about that, because there is no logical reason for Putin to prefer Harris. After all, the Democrats have been very forceful in their support for Ukraine, both militarily and economically. They also advocate a much more present role in the international sphere, while Trump has already shown during his term that what matters to him are domestic affairs. However, he has promised to “end the war in Ukraine before reaching the White House” if he is re-elected, although, as is usual with him, he has not said how he intends to achieve this. In Ukraine, they fear that it will be by forcing Kiev to negotiate and cede part of its territory to Moscow, an option that Volodymyr Zelensky has always rejected. Without a doubt, as was the case last night with the presidential debate, the elections will be followed with great interest throughout the world, because they are those in which, even if we cannot vote, they will end up splashing us.
That’s all for today. I hope I’ve explained to you some of what’s happening in the world. If you’re subscribed, you’ll receive this newsletter every Wednesday in your email. And, if you like it, it will be very helpful if you share it and recommend it.
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