INPS, accounts in the red by 20 billion in 2032. The birth rate and the increase in longevity weigh heavily
The aging of the population and the demographic decline will burden the budget of the INPSwhose financial situation will turn into a deficit over the course of 10 years, going from +23 billion in 2023 to -45 billion in 2032, with negative operating results that worsen over the decade from -3 billion to -20 billion.
This is what was underlined by Civil of the Institute, heard at the hearing of the control commission on social security institutions. In his report the president of the Civ Roberto Ghiselli speaks of the “combination of two trends, the increase in longevity and low fertility, which cause the so-called inversion in the age pyramid. The positive balance of migratory flows is not sufficient to balance the negative balance of the natural dynamics. The trend in demographic decline already now determines a notable imbalance between the cohorts interested in or close to retirement, and those entering the job market, with a generally increasing contraction of the active population”.
“One of the aspects of greatest concern for the future balance of the social security system – he continues Ghiselli in the text – is represented by the growth in the number of pensioners in relation to active workers, in particular due to the combined effect of the forecasts of demographic decline, largely connected to the phenomenon of the birth rate decline, and the increase in life expectancy, which overall leads to an aging trend of the population”.
The uncertainty concerns in particular ‘the adequacy of future pension benefits’ mainly linked to the working and income conditions acquired during the working career rather than to the pension calculation system, he further explained Ghiselli. “The risk of a widespread inadequacy of future pension payments may depend on the discontinuity in work and therefore in contributions, on low levels of income, on irregularities in employment relationships,” he underlines.
In 2023, pension spending will rise to 304 billion
Last year, pension spending amounted to 304 billion, with an increase of 7.4% compared to the previous year, an increase essentially determined by pension revaluation in light of the inflationary surge that had occurred the previous year.
These are the data provided at the hearing of the Social Security Institutions Control Commission by the Steering and Supervisory Council of the INPS which on 16 July will bring the general statement relating to the year 2023 to approval. The statement proposal highlights a total revenue amount of 536 billion euros of which 269 billion of contribution revenue (+5.1% on 2022) and 164 billion in current transfers from general taxation (+3.3%).
The total outputs amount to 524 billion, of which 398 billion per institutional performance (+4.55%). The cost of interventions supported by Gias transfers (Management of welfare interventions and support for social security management) increased by 7.4 billion in the final balance, in particular due to the increase in expenditure in favor of recipients of the Single Universal Allowance, the increase in transfers for contribution relief and the increase in coverage of the pension costs of the CTPS, the separate management of pension treatments to state employees. The balance of the relevant financial management amounts to +12.18 billion, of which 7.66 of the current account and 4.52 of the capital account.
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