Press
Emmanuel Macron is attempting a risky maneuver. This is probably not good news for the EU. A commentary by Marcus Mäckler.
There are various theories as to why Emmanuel Macron did what he did. Perhaps he actually dissolved parliament in the belief that the right-wing populists would win and provide a head of government who would disillusion himself – and with him the extreme right – by the time of the 2027 presidential election.
Macron’s aim has always been to prevent Marine Le Pen from becoming president, and the new elections may be part of an emergency plan. That would be particularly clever or particularly stupid – in any case extremely risky. What if Le Pen rushes into the Élysée even faster in three years?
Macron will not have an easy time after the French election
After the first round of voting on Sunday, France and Europe will be a little wiser. But one thing is already clear: Paris will not have an easy time in the next few years. The (probable) cohabitation, i.e. the situation in which the president and the strongest parliamentary faction, including the head of government, come from completely different camps, is no picnic and will only work if both sides have a common interest in the country’s progress. The Front National, however, hates the centrist Macronism and wants a different France. The same applies to parts of the equally strong left around the extremist Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
For the foreseeable future, France will probably be primarily concerned with itself politically. This is not good news for the EU, which is facing severe challenges – and not for Germany either. For years, Macron tried to make Paris and Berlin the centre of a new European self-confidence. But neither Merkel nor Scholz took the bait. A France with strong fringes and a weak centre will continue to turn away. We have missed an opportunity.
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