The second round is not decided by foreign policy positions or the ghosts of history, but by the credibility of the candidates. Stubb has a better chance of winning, writes HS's political reporter Teemu Luukka in his analysis.
The presidential election go to the second round Alexander Stubb (cook) and Pekka Haavisto (green), and the race will be tighter than previously expected.
It was clear when 99.9 percent of the votes in the first round of the election had been counted on Sunday evening. Stubb's vote was 27.2 percent and Haaviston's 25.8 percent.
Since 1994, two candidates whose support is so close to each other have never gone to the second round.
The result is traditional to the extent that even in previous presidential elections in the current form, one presidential candidate has represented the center-right and the other the left or green-left. Haavisto already said last fall that he is “not red at all”, but he can be counted among the center-left and definitely the greens in this struggle situation.
According to polls conducted before the election day, Stubb is the early favorite against Haavisto to become the next president.
In the most recent polls published by Yle and Helsingin Sanomat, Stubb would clearly win over Haavisto. According to HS research, Stubb would get 55 percent and Haavisto 42 percent of the votes.
Stubby however, it is not worth declaring him president yet, the result of the first round was so tight.
The name of the President of the Republic of Finland will not be known until Sunday, February 11, late in the evening.
In the current fast-paced politics, there is such a long time for that that surprises can happen.
What decides which of them wins more Finnish votes?
The second round is different in nature from the first.
It is quite a different thing to participate in, for example, an exam with two participants, than to be one of nine. In a nine-person exam of a couple of hours, you can sometimes wait and rest your brain, but not in a two-person exam.
This can bring out new traits in the candidates.
So you can expect the election exams to be clearly tougher than before.
The candidates have complained that they have not been able to justify their ideas enough. Now they get, and it may be that they will miss nine people exams.
Both are clear speakers, but in some of the president's values leadership issues, Stubb in particular may have seemed like a weathervane. Haavisto, on the other hand, has had views that may have sounded quite strict to some green-leftists.
Haavisto's views on closing the eastern border may have caused some green and left-wing allies to tremble. Stubb's views on dual citizenship have been open to interpretation.
Over here until now, Stubb and Haavisto have played it safe. They have been polite to each other and careful not to annoy anyone. Now the probability of clashes increases, and it is always a risk for the candidates.
The upcoming exams will be real stress tests, and getting nervous is dangerous. In exams with two people, however, you have to challenge, you can't just hug the other person.
Too much petting is also bad, as is annoying attacking. You have to know but summarize, you have to be relaxed but strict.
Then sell yourself to the citizens.
Stubbs and Haavisto are both experienced test takers, and they don't easily lose their temper even in difficult situations. However, the small movements of the face are revealing and can have a surprising effect on voting behavior.
If Stubb, who appeared as a nice guy, became irritable in duels, it would catch the eye. The same applies to Haavisto.
Stability the requirement is emphasized because the situation is completely new for Finland.
Now a president of difficult times is being elected in a situation where there is a war going on in Europe, Russia is threatening Finland and Finland is a member of NATO.
The main task of Finnish presidents, not written into the constitution, has always been to keep Russia on the other side of the border.
The means have been, among other things, warfare, connivance, cunning, becoming Finnish, making deals and you know what, but not once since the Second World War has the situation been that the president has not had direct contact with the ruler of Russia.
Director of the Center for Parliamentary Research Markku Jokisipilä judge on Sunday evening for HS that the one who can convince the people that he is the best person to work for Finland in a new world situation will win.
“You have to be able to talk about dependence on China, what NATO membership means, how active a member Finland will be and what to do with Russia.”
In exams we will once again go through the candidates' previous statements related to Russia and NATO.
From the history of Haavisto, at least the al-Hol decisions of the foreign minister's term and statements about cuts in defense spending will be reviewed.
Stubb has to tell why he didn't really want to succeed as prime minister and why he has let frogs out of his mouth.
All the history statements that are boring for the candidates must have been reviewed. Unless something new is found, the past of the candidates will hardly decide the election.
Former mistakes and today's blue-eyed statements will be more in the role of testing the nerves of the candidates.
Elections it's also unlikely to be decided by how well Haavisto and Stubb spell the foreign and security policy phrases that belong to the president's actual duties. They know them even in their sleep, and there aren't many differences.
What remains are values and personalities.
The candidates have already gone through all sorts of trick courses that have tried to open up their personalities.
Maybe we don't ask about their favorite toys anymore, but we try to bring out their personality and their ultimate values even more.
Right the central role is the turnout and how much the candidates get on their side.
According to HS's Gallup, about 70 percent would definitely vote in the second round if Stubb and Haavisto were facing each other. Only 55 percent of basic Finns would be sure in this situation. For many basic Finns, both Stubb and Haavisto are too liberal.
There is tension not only on the liberal-conservative axis, but also on the urban-rural axis. Both are very urban candidates. It is a bad omen for Stubb that the interest of centrists and Christian Democrats in voting is also predicted to decrease in the second round between Stubb and Haavisto.
Haavisto has already won over the voters of Sdp and the Left Alliance, but their votes are not enough to win. In order to win, he would have to win over at least some of the other voters who dislike Stubb as a person.
For Stubb, on the other hand, it is enough to win if he can keep the center-right voters on his side.
Stubb can be considered a pre-favourite.
Haavisto would lose even if he got everything Li Andersson's (left) and Jutta Urpilainen's story (sdp) votes and, for example, a quarter Olli Rehnin (center) of the votes and even if Stubb only gets half Jussi Halla-ahon (ps), Rehnin, Sari Essayahin (kd), Mika Aaltolan (sit) and Harry Harkimon (Liike Nyt) votes.
In this calculation, Stubb would gather a little over 600,000 more votes and Haavisto a little over 400,000 more on top of the votes of the first round. The calculation is rough, but it is certain that Haavisto will start from behind in the second round.
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