The assassination in Tehran of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh is “worse” for Iran than the raid on its consulate in Damascus in which the commander of the Pasdaran, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, died. Retaliation for the killing of the Palestinian leader “seems to be inevitable. It is not a question of if, but of when and how”. This was stated in an interview with Adnkronos by Abas Aslani, an Iranian journalist and researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (Cmess acronym in English) in Tehran, who speaks of different “scenarios” that could emerge depending on the response that Tehran wants to give to the Jewish state.
There could be a process of “wearing out” or a “one-off” action against Israeli interests, Aslani indicates, stressing that no decision has yet been made in Tehran. In the case of the attack in Syria, the Islamic Republic “reacted directly by targeting Israel,” the Iranian expert points out. “But this time this assassination in the Iranian capital is worse than the previous one. It is a coincidence. Therefore, I think that Iran will have to respond perhaps directly and also in coordination with its allies or the so-called Axis of Resistance in the region.”
Will it be a simultaneous attack or should we expect something different? “That is the question. We don’t know,” Aslani replied. “But I think it could be a combination of different ways or it could be more than one action.”
The researcher at CMESS therefore believes that it was “not good news for the Iranian security apparatus that the assassination took place in Tehran. And this could be in some way a tactical defeat. (The authorities, ed.) will try in some way to ensure that this does not happen again in the future even if the details of this killing have not been publicly and clearly announced”.
Aslani invites us to analyze what happened considering how the war in Gaza has been going on for 10 months now and now “Israel does not seem to believe it can change the balance and has not been able to achieve its declared objectives. So it wants an escalation towards a wider conflict in the region”, seeking “greater involvement from the United States that will help it change” this situation.
According to the analyst, the assassinations of Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut appear to be “aimed at provoking a reaction” from Iran and “expanding the war in such a way that the United States is forced to intervene because Israel alone believes it cannot achieve its goals.” But above all, Aslani believes, because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that “with the end of the war, his political career will end and he wants to make sure it continues.”
The main thesis of observers is that Iran’s reaction “normally seeks to avoid a war in the region and the past attack on Israel, in which no war broke out, was an example of this. But this is perhaps the reason why Israel this time conducted the assassination in Tehran”, the analyst finally states, still speaking of the announced retaliation for the murder of Haniyeh.
“If Iran wants to change this logic, it has to do something different. Israel has crossed Iran’s red lines. Iran has to do the same and cross Israel’s red lines,” Aslani continued, warning that this “could be very risky. It could also have consequences or escalate into a regional war.”
“But Iran has no choice but to do so and that is why the situation is so uncertain and there is no guarantee that the response will not result in a regional war,” stresses the analyst, according to whom Israel is trying to “provoke” Iran to respond in a way that “brings risks” to the Islamic Republic. “You cannot continue with the status quo and when the threat level increases, the risks and possibilities of a war also increase,” concludes Aslani. “And even if Iran’s policy is not to seek a war, if it finds itself in a situation where it has to, this can happen and there is no guarantee that it can be avoided.”
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