Once again, the Russian war in Ukraine will bifurcate Europe. East will be separated from west, and the border between the two will likely be a secure and militarized zone for the foreseeable future.
Of course, we don’t know when or how the war will end. But, after recent events, it seems safe to assume that both Ukraine What moldova will become candidates to be part of the European Unionand full members after a few years.
(You can read: Leaving Ukraine without electricity: Why did Russia launch this strategy?).
The leaders of the three largest EU Member States (France, Germany and Italy) and Romania made this clear when they visited kyiv (months ago). They offered both countries their full support for your applicationsjust as the European Commission did later.
This enlargement process will fundamentally change the EU, turning it decisively into a geopolitical actor and, in fact, Russia’s main adversary on the continent.
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With his aggressive war on Ukraine, the Russian president, Vladimir Putinn, has made it absolutely clear that he aspires to restore the russian empire. As such, it operates on principles totally incompatible with those of the EU, which are based on sovereign equality, territorial integrity, the inviolability of borders and the rule of law.
Two options
The EU has decided to integrate Ukraine not because it wanted to or because of its own imperial ambitions, but because Putin forced her with his attitude of starting the fight and thus force Europe to choose between two alternatives. Europe could give in to the Kremlin’s claims to power or defend its own identity and interests, based on respect for human rights and democratic principles. But the EU has chosen to defend its principles and freedom.
Some critics of his decision will say that he should have tried to negotiate with Russia, but that argument lacks credibility. Even if the European Union had been prepared to reach a dubious compromise with the Kremlin, it wouldn’t have workedsince the Union is in a position that is mutually exclusive today with that of Putin and his revisionist imperial dreams.
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Since neither side can give in, we must prepare for a long conflict. And since military force and deterrent capabilities will play a decisive role, the war will definitely change the character of the EU. The economic integration project will no longer be the top priority. From today, security and geopolitical interests must take precedence.
road of no return
The declaration of support for the candidacies of Ukraine and Moldova marks the beginning of the second phase of expansion of the EU to the east. Although the entry of neither country will happen soon, the process itself will have an irreversible effect. The Europe of the future will no longer be possible without the states of Eastern Europe, if they are still willing and able to come together.
The reason is simple. When the time comes for an idea, it becomes unstoppable. In contrast, an idea whose time has passed can only endure supported by military force, and even then it will not survive. The new conflict between Europe and Russia revolves around ideas. It is a clash between imperialism and democracy.
Given the historical importance of this, Western Europeans must not succumb to comfortable self-delusions about the risks they face. The current order of European states was originally built around the goal of integrating Russia and Europe. But Putin has irreversibly ruined the project, making it a thing of the past.
(We leave you: Security Council imposes a battery of sanctions on armed groups in Haiti).
With the war in Ukraine, Europe faces a test of maturity: it has come of age in a world defined by nuclear rivalries and great powers. Whether you like it or not, these are the geopolitical realities of the early 21st century. In the absence of continuity in the alliance with the United States, Europe, in its fragile condition, would be too weak to survive in this scenario. By themselves, interests and values do not matter.
The alternative is for Europe to accept its current weakness and cling to fanciful illusions. That path leads to submission and dependence. You cannot expect to obtain reciprocal esteem and consideration in a world marked by rivalry between great powers.
Consequently, Europe’s only real option is to seek prudent alliances, develop its own strength and boost its own deterrent capabilities. To survive the new conflict of ideas, the prolonged illusions must be replaced by a coherent strategy. Europe has to accept that it lives in a neighborhood full of dangers.
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JOSHKA FISCHER*
© Project Syndicate
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