French general election | “One scenario is what has also been seen in Finland” – The researcher picked up the pieces for Finns on election night

France will hold early parliamentary elections on two consecutive Sundays in an exceptionally blocked setting. The early favorites – the far-right National Alliance and the far-left New People’s Front – represent the political extremes.

The centrist liberal president representing the third bloc, who has become the underdog Emmanuel Macron referred to even to civil war when he warned of the consequences of the victory of the extremists.

France is unlikely to experience a literal civil war, but there will be unrest, says an academy researcher at the University of Helsinki Timo Miettinen.

He raises the three most interesting issues from the point of view of Finns.

1. Would the far-right feel the same about government responsibility as basic Finns?

National of those leading the coalition Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen the goal is to make their nationalist party politically acceptable and governable.

But if the party were to come to power, the consequences could lead in two different directions.

“One scenario is what has also been seen in Finland: when a party that strongly positions itself as a protest movement finds itself in government responsibility, there may be a weakening of support. In Finland, this has happened to basic Finns,” says Miettinen.

In Italy, however, the development has been the opposite. Prime minister Giorgia Meloni has been able to specifically strengthen its position through board responsibility.

Which direction the National Coalition’s possible government responsibility would lead to could be decisive for Le Pen’s presidential dreams in the 2027 elections.

A majority position in the parliamentary elections is not necessarily the best option for the National Alliance, as the party would have to stick to its difficult promises in terms of government responsibility, says Miettinen.

2. Will the turbulence spread to the euro area?

Coming soon there is turbulence, the consequences of which can also be felt more widely in the euro area, says Miettinen. France is the second largest economy in the EU.

“Both the left-wing bloc and the National Alliance have campaigned with a very revitalizing budget, which would clearly be against the EU’s financial rules. It might cause a lot of nervousness in the market.”

Some of the election themes of the National Alliance (RN) are reminiscent of the debate that took place in Finland as well. For example, fuel taxation should be reduced.

RN has also called for tax breaks for people under 30 years old. In addition, the party does not accept Macron’s push for raising the retirement age from the current 62 to 64.

All of these have a high price tag, which would lead to an increase in the budget deficit.

In addition, RN would like to weaken social security for immigrants and separate it from social security for the general population.

3. What will happen to Ukrainian and European politics?

Ukraine policy and European politics more broadly in France is largely in the hands of the president and huge changes are unlikely to happen, Miettinen estimates.

However, Macron’s room for action regarding Ukraine is presumably narrowing. Until now, the president has kept various options open: in his opinion, for example, Western countries should not rule out the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine.

“Both on the far right and on the far left, there is a certain skepticism towards the justification and reasonableness of support for Ukraine in general,” says Miettinen.

Parliament has considerable power in budgetary matters. The far-right has no desire to promote the unity of the EU, and it can put stones in the cart, for example, in the goals of strengthening Europe’s competitiveness in the tightening world political situation.