French elections|Le Pen’s party became the largest in France by collecting a third of the votes. In the second round, the concentration of votes can still prevent its rise to power.
Marine Le Pen the long-led far-right National Coalition is gaining more than 33 percent of the vote in the first round of the French general election.
The New People’s Front, quickly assembled by the left-wing parties and the Greens, gets about 28 percent, and the president Emmanuel Macron only 20.5 percent of the Jäsnes electoral alliance.
It’s more than the victory of Macron’s party in the recent European elections, but still a huge disappointment for the president, who hoped that the political center would strengthen in the elections. Now the opposite happened.
The Republicans, representing the more traditional right, were also disappointed and only got about ten percent of the vote.
In France, there are also enough smaller parties that are important in possible coalition negotiations.
Next During the week, stations are created for tactical voting. Without it, Le Pen’s party could even get an absolute majority in parliament.
This is due to France’s interesting electoral system. If the most popular candidate in the constituency does not get more than half of the votes, all candidates who get 12.5 percent of the votes get to the second round.
Now it would seem that a record number of constituencies for three candidates will accumulate in the second round. In at least one electoral district, up to four candidates advance to the second round
The person who gets the most votes in the second round gets into parliament even if he doesn’t get more than half of the votes in this round either.
Three in candidate battles, the far right can often be outplayed if opposing candidates concentrate their votes tactically.
Such alliances have been formed before, and they are expected to happen now as well.
Right after the preliminary results, the chairpersons of the far-right and center-left parties encouraged their candidates to withdraw from the second round if they are in third place and the far-right is among the top two in that constituency.
In this way, the votes would be focused on preventing the victory of the far right.
President Emmanuel Macron asked to vote for “clearly democratic and republican” candidates in the second round.
For example, the Reuters news agency interprets it as an encouragement to vote tactically against the far-right and far-left.
However, Macron’s first formulation was more ambiguous than the promise of the leaders of the New People’s Front, according to which the candidates who finished third would give up the second round.
Macron still has to give clearer formulations, although they could further reduce his party’s success in the second round.
Reuters according to, the success of tactical voting in combating the far-right is more uncertain than ever before.
For example, the Republicans did not give instructions on tactical voting, so many of their candidates may continue even if they are only third in the electoral district after the first round.
Even so, the ranks can break apart despite the instructions of the party leadership. Le Pen’s party has previously been quite successful in constituencies where three candidates reach the second round, Reuters reminds.
But will it succeed so well that the party reaches an absolute majority?
The national coalition is led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella with the support of Marine Le Pen.
Marine Le Pen is a controversial figure who has tried in public to some extent to clean up his father Jean-Marie Le Pen the racist and far-right legacy of the party he founded.
With Marine Le Pen’s support, the National Alliance is now led by a 28-year-old Jordan Bardellawho will become prime minister if the party gets an absolute majority in the second round.
According to Bardella, the party is not going to try to form a minority government if an absolute majority is not created. This is how he tries to activate his voters for the second round as well.
Le Pen has similarly stated that nothing has been won yet.
Bardella has, for example, stated that his government would not give Ukraine long-range weapons, reminds France24. The party is also known for its criticism of the EU.
If If the national coalition gets an absolute majority, Macron would still have extensive presidential powers. Cooperation with the government would undoubtedly be frictionless.
If and when tactical voting takes place, the distribution of seats in the second round will be very difficult to predict, the French media estimate.
For example, it is possible that if the tactical voting is successful, the New People’s Front, quickly assembled by the left-wing parties and the greens, would be able to assemble a coalition government.
Macron’s party, which belonged to a different electoral alliance, might also be needed. Board negotiations could then become a long and complicated process.
It is also possible that government negotiations after another fail and things are run by the Ministry of Supply without any new active political actions.
Such a government would also not be able to challenge a president with extensive powers.
French the second round of the parliamentary elections will be held next Sunday.
Macron’s second term as president will not end until 2027.
#French #elections #means #tactical #voting #prevent #farright #coming #power
