06/30/2024 – 17:30
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Regroupment (RN) party won the first round of France’s parliamentary elections this Sunday (30), exit polls showed, but the final result will depend on days of negotiations before the second round next week.
RN was seen obtaining around 34% of the vote, according to exit polls by Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay and Elabe.
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This leaves the party ahead of rivals from the left and center, including President Emmanuel Macron’s Juntos alliance, whose bloc was seen polling between 20.5% and 23%. The New Popular Front, a hastily assembled left-wing coalition, was projected to win about 29% of the vote, exit polls showed.
Exit polls were in line with opinion polls before the election but provided little clarity on whether, once the second round is concluded next Sunday, the anti-immigration, eurosceptic RN will be able to form a government to “cohabit” with the pro-European Union (EU) Macron.
RN was seen winning the majority of seats in the National Assembly, but only one of the pollsters, Elabe, predicted that the party would win an absolute majority of 289 seats in the July 7 second round.
Experts say seat projections after first-round votes can be highly inaccurate, especially in this election.
A voter turnout was high compared with previous parliamentary elections, illustrating the political fervor Macron has stirred with his surprise decision to call a parliamentary vote after the RN defeated his party in the European Parliament elections earlier this month.
A week of political negotiations now lies ahead. In a written statement to the press, Macron called on voters to unite behind candidates who are “clearly republican and democratic,” which, based on his recent statements, would exclude candidates from the RN and the far-left France Insubmissa party. .
Joining forces
The final result will depend on how the parties decide to join forces in each of France’s 577 electoral districts for the second round.
In the past, center-right and center-left parties have joined forces to prevent the RN from coming to power, but this dynamic, called the “republican front” in France, is more uncertain than ever.
The president’s decision to call early elections has plunged the country into political uncertainty, sent shockwaves across Europe and sparked a sell-off of French assets on financial markets.
A longtime pariah, the RN is now closer to power than ever. Le Pen has sought to clean up the image of a party known for racism and anti-Semitism, a tactic that has worked amid voter anger at Macron, the high cost of living and growing concerns about immigration.
By 3 p.m. local time, turnout was nearly 60 percent, compared with 39.42 percent two years ago – the highest comparable turnout rates since the 1986 legislative vote, said Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos France.
(Additional reporting by Ardee Napolitano and Janis Laizans in Hénin-Beaumont and Clotaire Achi, Imad Creidi, Lucien Libert in Paris; Writing by Estelle Shirbon and Gabriel Stargardter)
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