Experts and observers in security and political affairs in Africa spoke to “Sky News Arabia” about the expected scenarios and the next step in Niger after the events of the French embassy and the military base, which some of them identified in the possibility of American or third-party mediation, or the worsening of the situation, which threatens to depart from it. the control.
What happened in Niger?
- The deadline set by the ruling military council in Niger for Paris to end its diplomatic and military presence in the country expired on Sunday.
- Thousands of people entered an open sit-in in front of the main French base on the outskirts of the Nigerian capital, with the participation of a number of members of the new military council.
- The military regime in Niger launched a new verbal attack against France, accusing Paris of “blatant interference” by supporting ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.
- On August 3, the Military Council announced the cancellation of several military agreements concluded with France, especially related to the stationing of the French contingent, which deploys 1,500 soldiers in Niger to participate in the fight against terrorism and extremist groups.
- Niger also withdrew diplomatic immunity and a visa from the French ambassador, Sylvain Etienne, and asked him to “leave” the country, according to an order from the Ministry of the Interior issued on Thursday, and a decision from the Supreme Court in Niamey on Friday.
- However, French President Emmanuel Macron praised Eteh’s work, noting that he was still at the embassy in Niamey despite being given 48 hours’ notice.
- “He is our representative to the legitimate authorities in Niger,” Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said in an interview with Le Monde newspaper, adding, “We do not have to succumb to the orders of a minister who has no legitimacy,” stressing that Paris guarantees “his ability to face the pressures of the putschists in complete safety.”
- Article 22 of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations states that embassy premises are “inviolable” and that officials and citizens of the host country “may not enter them except with the consent of the head of the (diplomatic) mission.”
Mediation or escalation of the crisis
In exclusive statements to “Sky News Arabia”, the director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, Richard Weitz, outlined his vision of the current situation in Niger, by saying:
- Things may go to a bad scenario for France and then the United States, that they find themselves forced to withdraw their forces and respond to internal pressures, as is the case in Mali.
- There are mostly bad consequences for the continuation of this situation, which means a further decline in French influence and greater influence for Russia and China, and the weakening of Nigerian democracy and counter-terrorism efforts.
narrow procedures
In statements to Sky News Arabia, the director of the Conflict Monitoring Center in the African Sahel, Muhammad Ali Kilani, monitors the nature of the current situation in Niger and the repercussions of its continuation, in a number of points:
- With regard to the fate of the French ambassador, his water and electricity services were cut off, and the judiciary issued a judicial warrant to evacuate the house and leave the country. This is officially considered a legal cover for the ambassador’s expulsion, despite the French reluctance.
- As for the military base, the crowds of demonstrators in front of it are still increasing day after day, and the French soldiers are demanding to leave the country, which was reflected in the French interior, in which French groups began to say that the Nigerians are the ones who determine the fate of their relationship with France, not Macron.
- At the same time, we see a French contradiction that occurred in the crisis of the African military coups, which is that the French ambassador to Gabon held a meeting with the putschists there.
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