Donald Trump hopes to benefit from the first criminal case against him and immediately gives a campaign speech. For the time being, his party supports him and experts doubt whether it will succeed in convicting him.
Trump’s presidential campaign continues as usual, on the same day he faces a New York criminal court. But the speech he gives on his return to his beach resort in Florida does not stir much among the supporters who come to listen. Trump delivers a grim speech portraying himself as a victim of politically motivated criminal investigations.
He doesn’t say much about the charge at hand – he allegedly falsified checks and his accounts to cover up illegal hush money payments to a porn star during a campaign. Instead, he lists a series of other grievances, hard to follow for listeners unfamiliar with Trumpian social media bubbles.
frustration
Trump is noticeably frustrated with his criminal process. His face was already on a storm in the courtroom, as can be seen in the photos that were taken there. He must have realized that his usual defense – the attack – does not work there. He has often been able to play the media cleverly, but that is not possible with a judge. Moreover, more criminal cases may follow, about more serious allegations, such as his attempts to manipulate an election result.
However, the consequences for him are not only worrying. More Republican voters are backing him in polls, after they previously showed that they were interested in fellow politicians who are less surrounded by scandal and noise. Trump’s campaign team also proudly stated that he raised $8 million in donations after he was charged with criminal charges.
I believe that Trump’s character and behavior make him unfit for public office
Even sworn enemies in his own party, such as former foreign affairs adviser John Bolton, say they find the charge weak. “I believe that President Trump’s character and behavior make him unfit for public office. Still, I believe the New York State Attorney has bent over backwards to bring criminal charges to serve a political agenda,” said Sen. Mitt Romney, a notorious critic of Trump.
Political witch hunt
The charge is a “mistake,” thinks Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California at Los Angeles and an expert on suffrage. Like many lawyers, he thinks that it will not be easy for the judiciary to get Trump convicted in this case. And if Trump were to go unpunished, that would reinforce his complaint that all investigations into him are part of a political witch hunt. “They say if you aim your arrows at the king, you can’t miss,” Hasen warns in online magazine slate.
It is not unusual in other countries for a former leader to appear in the dock. Prime Minister Berlusconi was convicted in Italy, former President Sarkozy in France. In Brazil, Lula was imprisoned between two presidencies. But the US, which likes to think of itself as the freest, most democratic country in the world, has never seen anything like it. Critics fear it will be the first, but not the last time.
Many prosecutors are elected in the US. Now that a New York colleague is the first to prosecute a former president, others may want to make a name for themselves by looking for violations in the financial records of former presidents who are unpopular in their state, fears former prosecutor Ankush Khardori.
Process starts later
It will be a long time before we know more about the outcome and impact of the unique, first criminal case against a former US president. The next preparatory session is not until December. The trial could really start in January 2024. Trump’s lawyers are asking for even more time.
Then the case can occur when the primaries for the presidency are in full swing. Even if Trump were convicted, he could continue his campaign to be re-elected. A clean criminal record is not a requirement for a president under the U.S. Constitution.
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