06/30/2024 – 16:06
Preliminary projections point to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally with 34% of the votes and President Macron’s alliance in third place, behind the left-wing coalition. A few minutes after the end of the first round of voting for legislative elections in France, projections released this Sunday ( 30/06) point to the ultra-right National Reunion (RN) ahead, with 34% of the votes for the National Assembly (lower house of the French Congress).
Close behind is the coalition of left-wing parties Nova Frente Popular (NFP), with between 28.1% and 29.1% of the votes.
President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition, called Juntos, came in third place, with between 20.3% and 21.5%.
The data comes from exit polls released by French television channels TF1 and France 2.
If confirmed, the numbers suggest that the RN will perform in line with that projected by the polls, and indicate that the situation of French President Emmanuel Macron, who still has just under three years left in office, is likely to become more difficult. The National Assembly, where he no longer has a majority since 2022, could halt his government and, ultimately, shorten his term.
In France’s semi-presidential system, the president and members of the government are elected separately. A president relies on a prime minister appointed by parliament to ensure governability.
To obtain an absolute majority and be able to lead a stable government, a party needs 289 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly – before the new vote, Macron had just 250.
What happens now?
The real composition of the National Assembly will only be known after the second round, scheduled for next Sunday, July 7th.
According to projections from the two TV channels, the RN would have between 230 and 280 of the 577 seats, followed by the NFP with between 125 and 200 of the seats, and, finally, Macron’s coalition with between 60 and 100 deputies.
Because of the fragmented system of disputes, the final outcome of the Assembly’s formation is often difficult to predict.
Judging by preliminary data, no coalition has a majority of votes, so it is expected that many seats are still up for grabs.
The French electoral system provides for local disputes in two rounds to define the 577 seats in the National Assembly. Those who obtain an absolute majority of votes win in the first round, as long as the voter turnout rate was at least 25%. When this does not happen, those with 12.5% more votes go to the second round – which can involve up to three or four candidates.
Macron dissolves National Assembly after far-right victory in European elections
On June 9, after seeing his centrist alliance defeated by the National Rally (RN) in the European Parliament elections, Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the calling of early elections.
By calling a flash election, the Frenchman hoped to once again attract voters who oppose Le Pen’s ultra-right, as had happened in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, and eventually elect a more favorable National Assembly.
Ultra-right previously said it would not present a prime minister without a majority of deputies
The rise to power of the far right, for the first time since the liberation of France from Nazi Germany’s occupation in 1945, would increase the space occupied by this tendency in the European Union (EU), which currently governs Italy and Hungary.
Such a scenario could weaken Macron’s policy of supporting Ukraine. Although it says it supports Kiev, Le Pen’s party, whose detractors see it as close to Vladimir Putin’s Russia, emphasizes that it wants to avoid escalation with Moscow.
The RN has put forward Jordan Bardella, 28, as prime minister, but has made his nomination conditional on obtaining a majority in the National Assembly. Bardella’s government program seeks to limit immigration, impose “authority” in schools and reduce French electricity bills.
If the RN wins an absolute majority, it will secure the appointment of the next prime minister and cabinet. This scenario, when the president and prime minister are from rival political groups, is called “cohabitation” in France. It has happened three times (1986-1988, 1993-1995, and 1997-2002), but in cases involving traditional parties, never with a radical party like the RN.
If the RN fails to form a majority, the French constitution is unclear about what should be done. Macron could either keep a weakened Gabriel Attal as interim prime minister or find himself forced to seek a prime minister on the left or from a completely different group, without the support of the majority of the electorate.
ra (dpa, dw, ots)
The data mentioned in this text are preliminary and may change.
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