With undeniable dynamism, the candidate of the radical left imagines shaking up the panorama predicted from the beginning: that of a second round that would oppose, as in 2017, Emmanuel Macron with Marine Le Pen. However, for this he will have to take on several challenges: to convince the electorate of the moderate left and the abstentionists.
This seems like a show of force: by mobilizing tens of thousands of people (100,000, according to France Insoumise) on Sunday March 20 during his march for the Sixth Republic, Jean-Luc Mélenchon showed that it must be taken into account at least until the April 10, for the first round of the presidential elections… And maybe even more.
Indeed, there is a dynamism in the campaign of the candidate of the radical left. In addition to Sunday’s rally, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s rallies consistently draw people from all over the country. This is reflected in the polls with a curve that, like the sagacious tortoise in La Fontaine’s fable with which it is compared, is advancing slowly but surely: The polls now attribute between 13% and 14% voting intention . Although he is listed in third place, he is still far behind Emmanuel Macron (30%) and Marine Le Pen (17-18%).
Consequently, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is increasingly seen as a “useful vote” for the left-wing electorate. The other candidates of this political family seem to be, according to the polls, clearly behind: the environmentalist Yannick Jadot reaches around 5-6% of the voting intentions, the communist Fabien Roussel appears with 4-5% and the socialist Anne Hidalgo does not exceed 2%.
In this context, the march for the Sixth Republic intended to convince the undecided. “Each person is personally responsible for the result, each person has the key to the second round. (…) Don’t hide behind the differences between leaders and labels. You are the ones who make the decision. Don’t avoid it,” Jean told them. -Luc Mélenchon And making the choice of left-wing voters in the first round a “moral responsibility” in the face of Emmanuel Macron’s program, the rebellious candidate warned: “This vote is a social referendum. You’re warned”.
Chaque personne, quelle qu’ait été sa vie et ses engagements, est personnellement responsible du résultat de l’election presidentielle. Car c’est chaque personne que a la clé du deuxième tour, que ouvre la porte d’une meilleure société. #MarchePourLa6eRepublique pic.twitter.com/QomwtNf03l
— Jean-Luc Mélenchon (@JLMelenchon) March 20, 2022
Will this argument be effective? Some have already taken the step, such as Christine, a 52-year-old former yellow vest, who in principle “is not a fan of Jean-Luc Mélenchon”, but is in favor of a Sixth Republic that would allow, as the rebellious candidate promised, to pass to a parliamentary system and a better distribution of power between the president, Parliament and the citizens. “I will vote for him so that we leave the Fifth Republic. Society is becoming dehumanized, depoliticized. We have to change the system. I no longer trust politicians, but this is our last chance,” she told France 24.
a deteriorated image
But many other voters on the left remain reluctant. The image of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, tarnished by his outbursts of anger such as the “I am the Republic” episode in 2018 or by his foreign policy positions considered too favorable towards Russia, especially France’s departure from NATO, remains a disadvantage.
“For once, foreign policy is acquiring real importance in the campaign and it will be difficult for Jean-Luc Mélenchon to manage to convince a whole part of the electorate on the left that is sensitive to this issue and that is particularly in favor of accession from France to NATO,” says political scientist Gérard Grunberg, contacted by France 24.
Especially since the environmentalist Yannick Jadot and the socialist Anne Hidalgo do not stop attacking him over the Ukrainian question. And the more plausible the hypothesis is that the rebellious candidate will go to the second round of the presidential elections, the sharper the comments become; like that of Anne Hidalgo, who caricatures Jean-Luc Mélenchon as “complacent and accomplice of the dictators”.
Even the former socialist president François Hollande has come out to criticize the idea of the useful vote for the politician from the south of France. “At some point, you have to have a useful president, not just a useful vote,” he declared on Wednesday, March 9, on France Inter radio.
“There is a lot at stake for the Socialist Party, which is at stake for its survival”, emphasizes Gérard Grunberg. We know that this election is already lost for PS, but in terms of image, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s entry into the second round would be a fatal blow.”
For this reason, the moderate left attacks the former socialist senator with all its might, even if it means favoring a new second round between Emmanuel Macron and the extreme right. “It is rebuilt more in a field of ruins where everyone (on the left) reaches a maximum of 12%, than in a field of ruins where Mélenchon reaches high”, says a socialist parliamentarian, quoted by the newspaper ‘Libération’.
The key to participation
The other key to Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s eventual access to the second round is the abstentionists. “I have noticed a constant increase in abstention and apathy around me. There is a great disillusionment with politics,” says Hélène, 32, who attended Sunday’s march for the Sixth Republic, “despite Mélenchon, more not for him,” he joked to France 24. However, he believes that “Mélenchon is right to propose a constituent assembly and the revocation of the mandates” because “power must be returned to the people so that they can get involved again.”
Hélène was seduced by the proposal for a Sixth Republic, other voters could be seduced by retirement at age 60, the minimum salary of 1,400 euros net, the freezing of the price of gasoline at 1.40 euros, the subsidy of 1,063 euros for students or the promised massive investments in public services. In any case, this is the bet that Jean-Luc Mélenchon makes when he sends his militants to speak with the abstentionists in the popular neighborhoods, or when he addresses them evoking “a choice of society” repeating three times, in case the proposal of Emmanuel Macron has gone unnoticed: “Retirement at 65 years old! Retirement at 65 years old, retirement at 65 years old”.
“What the abstentionists will do remains unknown, but the problem for Jean-Luc Mélenchon is that most French people consider Emmanuel Macron’s re-election likely,” says Gérard Grunberg. Now, it is possible that this is a factor of abstention, because without a real hope of victory, the voters of the left could be demotivated”.
Aware of this reality, Jean-Luc Mélenchon responds to this argument by insisting on the consequences that his presence would have in a debate between the two rounds against Emmanuel Macron. Instead of talking about immigration and security in front of Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour or Valérie Pécresse, a Macron-Mélenchon second round would force the current president to talk about social protection, ecological bifurcation, housing and retirement. A perspective that could revive the right-left divide and that, on the contrary, should give reasons for hope to the left-wing electorate, analyzes the environment of the unsubmissive candidate.
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