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For the last time, there will be no percentage hurdle for the 2024 European elections. BSW, Volt and Co. – which small parties have a chance of winning seats? An expert answers.
Bremen/Munich – It is a colourful potpourri that opens up to informed people on the ballot paper: European elections On June 9th, not only will there be at least 34 nominations to be voted on in each of the federal states – an unusually large number of them will also have a real chance of winning a mandate, albeit for the last time in this form. From the 2029 European elections, there will again be a “barrier clause”, i.e. a percentage hurdle for entering the European Parliament.
This question is all the more important in 2024: which of the election proposals, apart from the top dogs known from the Bundestag, has a chance of entering the European Parliament? In 2019, less than one percent of the vote was enough, as Stefan Thierse from the Institute for European Studies at the University of Bremen explains. IPPEN.MEDIA says. For the current election, he sees real chances for six small German parties already represented in Brussels and Strasbourg – as well as for a prominent newcomer. And at least the opportunity for “respectable successes” for two other groups.
Small parties in the European elections: BSW and Free Voters have good chances according to polls
The data situation is difficult. Because the Polls on the European elections “As a rule, these small parties are not listed separately, but are listed under the other parties,” stresses Thierse. However, there are two exceptions among the parties not represented in the Bundestag:
On the one hand, the newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)According to the polls, the BSW was recently between 3 and 4 percent – “that would correspond to two mandates,” says the expert: “So the BSW can certainly be counted on.”
In addition, Free VotersThe institutes INSA, Ipsos and Forsa surveyed the party of Bavaria’s Vice-Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger in 2024. The results were between 2.5 and 3.5 percent. That would certainly be enough to enter the European Parliament. Aside from these two, a little more interpretation work is needed.
Vote for a small party: What chances do Die Partei, Piraten, ÖDP, Volt and Co have?
In any case, Thierse expects that “parties that already have members in the European Parliament and can therefore conduct an election campaign with leading candidates who are experienced in the European Parliament will be in a relatively good starting position – better in any case than complete newcomers”.
In addition to the Free Voters, this group includes six other parties: The Satire Party THE POLITICAL PARTYthe Piratesthe Family Partythe Animal Protection Party, volt and the ÖDPIn 2019, an expert predicted that the ÖDP would have a chance in Europe, mainly because of its popularity in Bavaria. Incidentally, all of those mentioned have been represented in the European Parliament since 2014. The European expert from the University of Bremen also believes that two election proposals could cause surprises.
European election “respectable success” possible for Last Generation and Varoufakis
“On the one hand, this is the Last generationwhich starts as a political association and then Mera25“, says Thierse IPPEN.MEDIAThe latter is part of the “Democracy in Europe 25” movement, founded by the controversial Greek ex-finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. “Mera25 ran in the last state election in Bremen and received 0.7 percent,” explains Thierse. That “certainly cannot be transferred to a nationwide election, but it could at least be enough for a respectable result.”
Recently, the small German parties in the European Parliament had chosen different strategies. Most of the MPs joined factions: the representatives of Volt, Pirates, Animal Protection Party, ÖDP and also Nico Semsrott, who was elected on the DIE PARTEI list, joined the Greens – although Animal Protection Party representative Martin Buschmann left the faction and then his party in 2020. He did not resign his mandate despite reports of an NPD past. Much to the displeasure of the Animal Protection Party. The two Free Voters joined the liberal “Renew”, the family party of the conservative EPP around the CDU and CSU.
European elections 2024 for the last time without a threshold: Small parties elected factions – only Sonneborn did not
Often, but not always, these parliamentarians voted in line with their respective factions. PARTY leader Martin Sonneborn chose a different option: he remained non-affiliated – as Buschmann and ex-AfD member Jörg Meuthen recently did. “Anyone who does not belong to a faction has little influence as an individual member of parliament,” says Thierse. Almost every lever of influence is measured against the factions, from speaking time to the right to submit motions to money for employees in the European Parliament. Sonneborn therefore uses the European Parliament “really more as a stage.” It also seems possible, however, that the AfD representatives will remain non-affiliated after the election.
Either way: After the European elections in 2024 and the period 2024-2029, the small parties will have a harder time. “From 2029, there will again be a two percent threshold for European elections in Germany,” explains Thierse. The reason for this is a decision by the Council of the EU in 2018 – the Federal Constitutional Court has already rejected objections. Thresholds between 2 and 5 percent were possible. “That means Germany is orienting itself at the lower end of what is possible,” emphasizes Thierse. This is still causing anger among the small parties: the ÖDP, for example, is heavily criticizing it. (fn)
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