Two major transformations travel parallel paths: digitalization and renewables. Data centers, artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrencies will double their electricity consumption by 2026, according to the latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The organization also expects that next year renewable generation will surpass that from coal, the most polluting fuel and one of the main vectors of climate change, on a global scale, to become the largest global source of electricity.
The OECD's energy arm points to data centers as a “significant” driver of electricity demand “in many regions.” After consuming 460 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2022, the last year for which there are figures, this amount will take a giant leap until it exceeds 1,000 TWh in 2026. Thus, they will go from demanding on their own the same as the second economy of the euro—France—to the equivalent of what the fourth world power—Japan—consumes. To put it in perspective, Spanish electricity consumption around 250 TWh year. “Updating regulations and technological and efficiency improvements will be crucial to moderate the increase in energy consumption in data centers,” the Agency's technicians write in their latest monograph on the electricity sector.
At the end of 2023 there were just over 8,000 data centers around the world. A third of them were in the United States, 16% in Europe and around 10% in China. In the case of the Old Continent, Spain is one of the countries repeatedly pointed out as one of the great destinations for these facilities in the future, thanks to the lower prices of electricity, although today most of them are in the centers financial institutions in Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris or Dublin.
The sharp increase in demand for data centers, AI and cryptocurrencies contrasts with a much more sluggish growth in general demand, even in the midst of the era of electrification and despite the push from India, China and several Southeast Asian countries . The 2.4% increase recorded in 2022 has been followed by an increase of 2.2% last year. In both years, advanced economies and, especially, European ones, have significantly reduced their demand due to the price crisis and lower industrial production.
Electrification and green boom
For the next three years, the Paris-based entity projects an average annual growth in general consumption of 3.4%. “The improved economic environment will contribute to greater demand in both advanced and emerging economies,” the study reads. “Particularly in China and rich countries, residential and transportation electrification, along with the expansion of data centers, will be the main drivers.”
In 2023, the weight of electricity in total energy consumption will reach 20%. They are two percentage points more than in 2015, but the 30% required in 2030 in the scenario of zero net emissions at the middle of the century – a path drawn by the IEA itself to try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees – remains still far away.
Much more evident will be the acceleration in renewables. Emission-free sources (solar, wind, hydraulic and nuclear) will go from providing 40% of the electricity consumed in the world in 2023 to around 50% in 2026. Atomic energy will continue to rise, marking the next year a historical record, “as French production grows, several Japanese plants are once again active and new reactors begin to operate in several markets, including China, India, South Korea and Europe.” But the differential factor will be green sources, which at the beginning of next year will surpass coal as the main source of electricity worldwide, leaving the fossil share (coal, gas and fuel oil) below 60% for the first time. since there are records.
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