Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena
Bper, Unipol orchestrates the marriage with MPS. Cimbri sings: “I go to the maximum”
Riddle: what do Vasco Rossi, Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Unipol have in common? The answer is very simple: Carlo Cimbri. The executive president of the Emilian insurance giant, he “fired” Piero Montani, CEO of Bperduring a press conference that went down in history in which, in front of amused and intrigued journalists, he first advised the CEO to “stay calm” (a phrase that went down in history as the kiss of death after Matteo Renzi used it with Enrico Letta) and then played “That’s fine, without words” from the speakers in the room Vasco Rossi.
But it was said that Cimbri is also the trait d’union for MPS: In what sense? On paper, Unipol’s number one has always denied (even during that press conference) the intention to merge Bper and Monte dei Paschi. But time is running out and the government will be able to place a new tranche of Rocca Salimbeni shares on July 2nd (i.e. next Tuesday). Presumably it will be 10%, thus diluting it to 16.7%. But there are no white knights on the horizon. The moral suasion carried out by the government – and above all by the Northern League – on BancoBpm has not yet achieved the desired effects. Giuseppe Castagna, strong on record results, he has no intention of buying Siena.
Thus, if Intesa Sanpaolo has always been (almost) impossible as a destination due to an Antitrust system that would force many branches to be cut; self Unicredit seems intent on remunerating shareholders and possibly aiming its expansionist aims elsewhere, after the failure of negotiations in 2021; if, therefore, there does not seem to be much room for maneuver on the horizon – and no one likes the stew – then the hypothesis of a union between Bper and MPS (with Unipol which holds 19.7% of Popolare di Sondrio) seems to be taking shape more and more. The value? Today, thanks to the rumors of risk, MPS is worth around 5.8 billion, 1,000 million less than BPER. A way would be easily found, perhaps with a takeover bid (public purchase and exchange offer) along the lines of the one carried out by Intesa Sanpaolo with Ubi.
Obstacles? Unipol has long ceased to have the “red” coop connotation that it once had, and therefore there would be no objections even from the government. Because proceeding with the merger with MPS, until some time ago, would have meant the creation of a left-wing pole that would have raised more than one eyebrow in Via XX Settembre. Finally, there is a note of colour, which Affaritaliani.it records without exposing itself further: the Pizzaliks Twitter account tells of an off-air speech by the former CEO of Bper, Piero Montani. Who would have said, shortly before leaving the credit institution, that he is “the bank of the communists. The managers live on friendships with each other, they see each other at the weekend, they are all cousins, they cross paths at the altars and the projects never get off the ground.”
Will it be true? It is not known, but it is certain that the relationship between Montani and Cimbri collapsed it is at the basis of the latter’s urgency to change leadership, but also of the anything but orthodox way of leaving: a song by Vasco and a sarcastic comment. In short, we could have done better. Now that the dust has calmed down, however, we can go back to thinking. The third pole, which has been announced for years, could finally take off. To understand how, you have to wait a little more than a week. Meanwhile, as Bluerating suggests, MPS could decide to buy back the insurance hub from AXA for around one billion euros. Bancassurance represents a key sector for the future of Mps, but the agreement with the French will expire only in three years. Hence the need to take control of this branch and then accelerate the marriage with Bper-Unipol. It is therefore possible that Is Cimbri humming “I’m going all out” right now?
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