10/20/2023 – 10:38
Argentines go to the polls on Sunday (22) to choose the president between the far-right candidate Javier Milei, an anti-system whose speech is to end the “political caste”; the current Minister of Economy, the Peronist Sergio Massa; and conservative Patricia Bullrich, in a climate of anguish due to the serious economic crisis.
Milei, a 52-year-old economist elected deputy only in 2021, shook up the political board in the August primaries, when he was the candidate with the most votes, ahead of Massa, from the government Union for the Fatherland, and Bullrich, from the Together for Change Party.
With his extremist speech, with his promise to dollarize the economy, end the Central Bank, or eliminate the Women’s Ministry, Milei gained popularity among an electorate exhausted by years of economic stagnation and skyrocketing inflation, which reached almost 140%. in annual terms.
“Voters are very frustrated and believe it can’t get any worse,” explains political scientist Juan Negri, from Torcuato di Tella University.
“We are in the period of anti-politics. A period of instability begins, we will have years of much conflict. We are experiencing the end of a stage in a very complicated way,” she added.
– Stagnation and poverty –
The third largest economy in Latin America, Argentine society has historically been proud of its large middle class. However, the economy has not grown for more than a decade, and poverty has skyrocketed, affecting more than 40% of the population.
Argentina has a commitment with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a US$44 billion credit program (R$223.9 billion at today’s exchange rate) that requires a significant reduction in the fiscal deficit.
In the weeks before the election, the country registered a frantic rush in the foreign exchange market, which raised the price of the “blue dollar”, as the informal exchange rate is known, to more than 1,000 pesos, against an official rate of 365 pesos per dollar.
The American currency is the usual refuge for savers in Argentina. Those who could afford it also bought electronic products, fearing price increases after the election.
“It is total uncertainty. You never know if the rent will be renewed, how much the university tuition fee will increase, or supermarket prices”, complains Valentín Figuera, a 20-year-old student from the upscale neighborhood of Palermo, in Buenos Aires.
Neither the current government of the center-left Peronist Alberto Fernández (2019-2023), nor the administration of his predecessor, the right-wing Mauricio Macri (2015-2019), have managed to change the trend of economic deterioration.
– “Negative campaigns” –
Massa, Minister of Economy for 14 months, and Bullrich, who was Minister of Security in the Macri government, face difficulties in establishing a distance from the bad image of the two administrations.
“Massa’s candidacy is deteriorating at the pace of the economy,” explained Negri. And, for Bullrich, who projects “a hard-line image, it is difficult to campaign against Milei.”
In the current scenario, Milei insists that he can win in the first round on Sunday (22). To achieve the goal, he needs 45% of the votes, or 40%, but with a 10-point advantage over the second most voted candidate.
An eventual second round will take place on November 19th.
“The elections worry me because it is difficult. There is no candidate for whom you declare your vote and that’s it,” said Nelly Quintana, a 38-year-old trader.
The director of the consultancy company Zubán, Córdoba e Associados, Paola Zubán, considers that the “campaigns were very negative. We no longer vote for the least bad, but for the one who can prevent the other from winning”, she highlights.
“It was a campaign marked by fear, frustration and fatigue”, he summarized.
Argentina, which in 2023 celebrates 40 years of returning to democracy, will also vote to define half of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and a third in the Senate. Polls indicate that no party will win a parliamentary majority.
The new president will take office on December 10 for a four-year term. The country has 35.8 million registered voters.
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