France’s nationalist right first caught international attention in 2002, in the presidential election in which Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, surprised by reaching the second round against then-president Jacques Chirac.
He was defeated, but paved the way for his daughter to make a political splash – Marine Le Pen also reached the second round of the presidential election, in 2017 and 2022, but was defeated in both by Emmanuel Macron.
Now, the nationalist right, from the National Regroupment party (RN, formerly the National Front), has its best chance of governing France.
This Sunday (30) and next (7), the first and second rounds of early elections for the National Assembly will be held, called by Macron after the RN was the party with the most votes in the French elections for the European Parliament, held on 9 of June.
In France, the president is free to appoint whoever he wants to the post of prime minister, responsible for forming the government, but for reasons of governability, the nominee is usually from the party or coalition with the most seats in the National Assembly.
This is because, without a majority in the house, the government is in a fragile position, constantly threatened with being overthrown by a vote of no confidence.
This creates a problematic situation in the French legislative elections. The RN appears ahead in the polls, with levels between 34% and 37%, not enough for an absolute majority.
Jordan Bardella, the young leader of the RN, said that he would not accept a possible nomination to be prime minister if his party does not achieve an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
“A prime minister with a relative majority cannot change things. I would not be able to act in the day-to-day lives of the French people, in the country’s public policies,” he explained.
Another issue is that Macron would hardly appoint the leader of the RN to the position of prime minister: he said that a victory for the nationalist right or the left-wing coalition Nova Frente Popular, which also appears ahead of the president’s coalition in the polls, would generate the risk of a “civil war” in France.
Marine Le Pen said in an interview with radio station RTL that, if a “political blockade” really occurs, Macron would have to resign from the presidency.
This is because his situation in the presidency would be unsustainable and because Macron, under French law, could not dissolve the National Assembly again until June 2025, argued Le Pen. The current president’s term runs until 2027.
In the event of the death, removal from office or resignation of the President of France, the President of the Senate takes over on an interim basis and the first round of a new presidential election must be held between 20 and 35 days after the vacancy of the presidency.
If the polls for the legislative elections are confirmed and Macron then resigns (which he denies he will do, regardless of the election result), the RN could benefit from the favorable wave of two consecutive electoral victories and finally reach the Elysée Palace.
Proposals
Among the RN’s proposals, detailed in a recent report by the newspaper Le Monde, are to encourage salary adjustments by exempting the amounts of these increases from employer contributions, up to the limits of 10% and three minimum wages; replacing the property tax created by Macron with a tax on total assets (which also includes deposits in current accounts, savings and investments, in addition to assets); and basing energy prices in France solely on that produced within the country, which would reduce the electricity bills of French households by 30% to 40%.
The RN also proposes political reform, with citizen-initiated referendums and full proportional representation in parliamentary elections.
Regarding mass and/or illegal immigration, the party defends measures such as the revocation of health insurance for illegal immigrants and the creation of a “national preference” for the benefit, in addition to creating a “double border”, European and French, to increase migration control.
Votes this Sunday and next will indicate whether the RN will be able to govern France and put these plans into practice.
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