With the concentration of Russian military on the Ukrainian border, Kiev has been warning the international community since last year about the possibility of a new invasion by Vladimir Putin’s government – along the lines of the 2014 annexation of Crimea and separatist movements supported by Moscow in the Donbass region, conflict that started in the same year and is still ongoing.
After Ukrainian Chancellor Dmytro Kuleba commented at a news conference on Kiev’s efforts for the West not to allow a repetition of the crisis that started nearly eight years ago, the Ukrainian ambassador to Brazil, Rostyslav Tronenko, explained in an interview to People’s Gazette, on Russian military pressure, how Moscow has refused to resume the Normandy Format dialogues, the threat posed by the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the response of Western Allies to Kiev’s warnings and the prospect of the country’s entry into NATO, Western military alliance, and in the European Union.
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence told the Military Times that Russia, which has more than 90,000 troops on the border, is preparing a new invasion of Ukraine in January. According to CNN, the United States plans to send military advisers and equipment, including weapons, to help the country. How do you see this possibility of invasion?
Russia, for the eighth year in a row, is looking for opportunities to destabilize the situation in Ukraine, illegally occupying the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, fighting and fueling war in Donbass, moving troops and equipment near our borders. With this amount of equipment and troops that Russia has deployed recently, it won’t be long before it starts the offensive, if the Kremlin decides to do so. Our current task is to do everything possible to avoid it, and also to increase the price of aggression for the Russian government.
At the same time, there is the readiness of Ukraine’s partners, in particular the United States, to deter Russia and strengthen Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
I think what’s happening now is yet another demonstration that Russia can quickly activate the already accumulated troops and weapons, and the Russian leadership is considering several options, including military ones. It’s still too early to judge what Russia’s scenario will be, but it’s worth getting ready.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense stated that, alongside Russia’s military movements in the border regions, there is also an increase in Russian propaganda activities, “with the preparation of false information to discredit the armed forces”. How have these activities been carried out, and what is their purpose, in your assessment?
The hybrid war started long before the year 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine. This war, in addition to Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine without insignia, foresees aggressive actions on several fronts: false propaganda, energy crisis, political destabilization with actions by opponents of vaccination. It is possible that we will soon also see attempts to provoke a migration crisis.
Since 2014, Russian propaganda has demonized Ukraine to justify the war against us, in the first place, to its own people.
But lately the propaganda in the Russian media has increased and the main messages have changed. Now Russia is accusing Ukraine of preparing actions that threaten Russian territorial stability and integrity. Public opinion is ready, in advance, to blame Ukraine in the event of possible Russian aggression.
As the Russian Federation deploys more troops to our borders, the high probability of some kind of provocation by Ukraine against Russia is mentioned more often. This “provocation” may in a certain scenario justify the incursion of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine.
In fact, I think we’re watching the media prepare for a Сasus belli.
We cannot know what exactly will be used for this purpose. But historically we already know several examples that led to the occupation of Baltic countries by Soviet troops or part of Finland, in 1939.
Ukraine has been making efforts to retake the Normandy Format. What are the perspectives for a return to negotiations in this forum?
The Normandy Format is an instrument of dialogue between the parties to a conflict for its peaceful resolution. But Russia, which is a major part of the conflict, has no intention of cooperating. Recently, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation sent its proposals to Germany, France and Ukraine on its vision of the final document of a possible meeting of chancellors of the four countries in the Normandy Format.
This document is written in such a way that it leaves no doubt that the minister [russo das Relações Exteriores] Sergei Lavrov continues to avoid this encounter.
Furthermore, on November 17, the same ministry published confidential diplomatic correspondence between the Russian chancellor and the foreign ministers of France and Germany. The publication of confidential correspondence further complicates working together, undermines confidence in the actions of Russian diplomacy and demonstrates that Russia is not interested in the development of the Normandy Format.
At the same time, the chancellors of the three countries have agreed that they will not give Russia the luxury of destroying the Normandy Format. They continue to work to involve the country in the negotiation process and diplomatic efforts to resolve this conflict. Ukraine will continue the dialogue because it is interested in peace and security.
The United States has been criticized for abandoning its allies in the region when withdrawing from Afghanistan. Does Ukraine fear a similar situation in the crisis with Russia? Are other allies coming forward to help the country on this issue?
Ukrainian diplomacy strengthens our state’s security by working in a few key areas: mobilizing allies, imposing sanctions, introducing political and diplomatic pressure on the aggressor state, and ensuring that the Ukrainian army receives modern weapons. In this regard, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did important work in Glasgow, where he held talks with world leaders, including the President of the United States, the Chancellor of Germany and the Secretary General of NATO.
The security situation in Donbass was a priority for the President of Ukraine in all these negotiations. He mobilized allies to support our state in the face of Russian aggression.
I should mention that on November 11, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed the renewed Charter of Strategic Partnership between our countries in Washington.
The new agreement sends a clear message: US support for Ukraine continues.
Ukraine needs this support to further develop its defense capability and also to deter Russia. The transfer of additional defensive weapons to Ukraine will deter Russia from further aggressive actions.
Ukraine has been assured that the US is committed to further supporting its sovereignty and territorial integrity should Russia decide to launch a new aggression. Russia must be aware that it will pay a high price.
In addition, other partners also spoke out. UK Foreign Minister Elizabeth Trass has warned that Russia will make a “serious mistake” if it launches a full-scale offensive against Ukraine. The diplomat also noted that London is working closely with its NATO allies to support Ukraine.
On November 17, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also stated that the Russian leadership would make a serious mistake if it resorted to force against Ukraine.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned Russian authorities that “any breach of the Ukrainian border and any invasion” will have “extremely serious consequences”.
It is important that Ukraine and its allies closely coordinate and take all measures that can help stop Russia and prevent worst-case scenarios.
Ukraine and Poland declared that the construction of Nord Stream 2 represents “a political, military and energy threat to Ukraine and Central Europe”. In what sense? Does the German government’s decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 certification process and the US pipeline-related sanctions offer hope against this threat?
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is a completely political project that has no economic significance. Ukraine and its partners insist that Nord Stream 2 must be subordinate to the spirit and letter of the EU’s Third Energy Package, despite efforts by Russian lobbyists and lawyers to create an exception. We are working to ensure that Russia does not turn Nord Stream 2 into a weapon.
The pipeline project not only undermines the energy security of Ukraine and Europe, but also divides European and transatlantic allies, and so Ukraine continues to oppose its launch.
The United States, Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic countries are also actively opposing the project, fearing Russia’s increasing influence in the European energy market.
Nord Stream 2 was never an economical project. This is a geopolitical project with a single objective – to bypass Ukraine, to remove one of the factors preventing Russian aggression.
I want to underline that the Ukrainian gas transport system was and remains the safest and most reliable way of transporting gas from Russia to the EU.
As Russia’s military concentration on the border has increased, Ukraine has received support from individual NATO allies and the alliance as a whole. Are there any signs of further support for Ukraine’s efforts to become a member of the alliance?
Ukraine has always been and will remain committed to peace, justice and security in Europe. We are ready to work with NATO to protect these fundamental principles.
The country is following the reforms with the aim of fulfilling all the necessary criteria to join NATO and the EU. This priority of our foreign policy is set out in our Constitution.
At the same time, some NATO allies still view Ukraine through the prism of its bilateral relations with Russia. If they change their approach, the situation will also change significantly in favor of Ukraine. And we are working on it.
How does Ukraine see the migration crisis on the Belarus-Polish border? Has the country taken steps to contain a possible influx of migrants?
The migration crisis, the Russian military escalation along our border and in the temporarily occupied territories, the increase in the levels of Russian propaganda in the countries of the European Union, the actions of Russia to paralyze the Normandy Format and the Minsk process, all these are elements of the same game aimed at increasing pressure on the EU. This is the position that Ukraine has conveyed to its partners, and they agree.
Ukraine has started a special operation to strengthen the protection of its border with Belarus and prevent an illegal migration crisis. Border guards, the National Guard, the police, the Ukrainian Armed Forces and reservists participate in this special operation. The threat to divert the flow of migrants from Belarus to Ukraine still remains at the border.
That is why the main task of the special operation is to prevent migrants from illegally crossing the border and entering Ukraine’s territory.
To that end, Ukraine has strengthened border patrols in possible areas of invasion by groups of illegal migrants. Aviation, drones and other technical surveillance devices will be used to patrol and secure the border.
The border protection regime is being significantly strengthened. Checkpoints at bus and train stations will be installed on the roads bordering Belarus.
Police officers will jointly patrol the border villages. Their task is to protect law and order in communities and explain to local people the risks of illegal migration.
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