The death of Hezbollah boss Hassan Nasrallah marks a turning point for the terrorist militia – is there now a risk of a conflagration in the Middle East?
Beirut – The terrorist militia Hezbollah confirmed the death of its boss Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday (September 28). The 64-year-old was not only the religious, but also political and military leader of the Islamist organization for more than three decades. Now the militia is headless – because Israeli attacks had already wiped out almost the entire leadership team. The eyes are now focused on him IranHezbollah’s main supporter.
Israel kills Hezbollah chief in Lebanon: Is there a risk of conflagration in the Middle East?
Hezbollah recently fought against civilian and military locations in northern Israel, and the Israeli army carried out air strikes on Lebanon in order to eliminate Hezbollah’s leadership. The militia is an ally of the radical Islamists Hamas. On Saturday, Israel said it attacked Hezbollah’s headquarters in the Lebanese capital Beirut. Six residential buildings collapsed, including the underground headquarters of the Shiite militia.
Concerns about a wildfire in the Middle East are growing. Nasrallah’s death increases the likelihood of a regional conflict, commented Ron Ben-Yishai, military reporter for the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Achronot. If Israel begins a “full-scale military aggression” against Lebanon, it will result in a “devastating war,” it warned U.N.–Representation of Iran in New York in July on Platform X. What would happen next after Nasrallah’s death was initially unclear.
Does Nasrallah’s death change the security architecture in the Middle East?
One possible reaction by Hezbollah is a violent military strike back to demonstrate its strength. In fact, the militia is weaker than it has been for a long time. The US war experts Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assume that a weakening of Hezbollah or Hamas could significantly change the “current security architecture in the Middle East, as it has existed since at least the mid-2000s.” An Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon is also on the cards: Tomer Bar, commander of the Israeli Air Force, reported on Thursday, according to ISW, that the Israeli Air Force was preparing to provide air support for a possible ground operation.
The Shiite government in Tehran finances militias in Yemen, Iraq and Syria and uses them to wage proxy wars. Direct military intervention by Iran is now on the cards, and hardliners in the country are already demanding retaliation. The attack on Nasrallah also reportedly killed Iranian Brigadier General Abbas Nilforushan, deputy head of operations for the Revolutionary Guard. This is likely to increase the pressure on Tehran again. According to military experts, if there were a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, Tehran would probably lose out because Israel has a powerful ally in the USA. Such a conflict would be a catastrophe for the region.
Who could succeed the Hezbollah chief?
The death of their boss hits the militia to the core: The killing is even more significant than that of top General Soleimani in 2020 and that of Osama bin Laden, leader of the terrorist network Al-Qaeda and mastermind of the September 11, 2001 attacks in the USA, analyzed the editor-in-chief of the Lebanese newspaper L’Orient Le JourAnthony Samrani. Some even considered Nasrallah to be number two in the “Axis of Resistance” behind Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hashim Safi al-Din, head of the Hezbollah Executive Council, is considered the most promising candidate to succeed him, according to high-ranking Israeli officials.
The cleric “was not present at the party’s headquarters” when it was hit by a series of airstrikes last night, the quoted New York Times the statement of three Israeli sources. Nasrallah’s cousin is said to have been preparing for a leadership role since the 1990s. As Lebanese media reported, Naim Kassem, Nasrallah’s previous deputy, temporarily took over the leadership of Hezbollah – and is also considered a possible successor. In 2021, when there were rumors about Nasrallah’s deteriorating health, the name also became Talal Hamiyah brought into play. He is the head of Hezbollah’s external security organization. (with agencies)
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