Lebanon|The death of the leader of the extremist organization Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli attack in Beirut has changed the war, say University of Helsinki professor Hannu Juusola and Finnish Middle East Institute director Susanne Dahlgren.
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The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon has thrown the extremist organization into chaos, and it is difficult to say where the situation will lead, says Hannu Juusola, professor of Near Eastern studies at the University of Helsinki.
The attack has changed the war, says Susanne Dahlgren, director of the Finnish Middle East Institute.
The extremist organization Hezbollah and its backer Iran will have to respond to the attacks, but it is unclear what they are ready and capable of.
Dahlgren believes that the US has given Israel its tacit approval of its actions in Lebanon.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah The death has thrown the extremist organization into chaos and may be the biggest disaster it has ever experienced. However, the continuation of the situation is open, thinks the professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Helsinki Hannu Juusola.
Hannu Juusola
Israeli Armed Forces killed Nasrallah in a powerful attack it made on Friday in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon.
The situation in the Middle East is now at a new crossroads, the consequences of which are difficult to see.
“It is difficult to say what is coming. The situation is open.”
of Israel the latest attacks have changed the war, also thinks the director of the Finnish Middle East Institute Susanne Dahlgrenwho lives in Beirut.
So far, Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged rocket fire in southern Lebanon. Now the situation has escalated into huge explosions that have collapsed entire buildings. As a result, Beirut’s church fronts, parks and streets are full Those fleeing Israeli attacks refugees, Dahlgren says.
Last in recent weeks, Israel has struck against Hezbollah exceptionally hard. In just a few days it will be managed to kill most of it due to an extremist organization.
“The campaign against Hezbollah has been a great success for Israel. Netanyahu’s position has strengthened,” says Juusola.
The question mark is how far Israel is still willing to go. According to Juusola, it might be enough for Hezbollah to withdraw from the border areas. On the other hand, he believes that the Israeli leadership may want to strike while the iron is hot.
Dahlgren is on the same lines. “Probably Hezbollah’s interests would be a cease-fire, [Israelin pääministeri Benjamin] Netanyahu no,” he says.
The director of the Finnish Middle East Institute, Susanne Dahlgren, emphasizes that the Finns she knows are currently safe in Lebanon.
Researchers agree that Hezbollah and its backer Iran must respond in some way to the attack.
“Hezbollah must do something. We can also be in a situation where Iran is forced to do something,” says Juusola.
How and to what extent they respond depends on their willingness to take risks.
Iran has been humiliated and, according to Juusola, it would have the ability to carry out a large-scale drone and rocket attack. However, he doesn’t believe that. Iran fears that Israel’s response would be harsh, and that the United States could also join the attack.
When Israel in the summer killed a Hamas leader to Ismail HaniyehUS intelligence thought it was clear that Iran would strike, says Juusola. However, this did not happen.
In the case of Hezbollah, it is also about what it is capable of now that it has lost a large part of its leaders.
Hezbollah has been surprisingly cautious in its response to Israel’s recent attacks, Juusola estimates. It has not carried out attacks on central areas of Israel and has not used heavy equipment.
Israel has counted on the fact that the United States, which is preparing for the presidential elections, will always give up in the end, Juusola thinks.
Just before Friday’s attacks on Beirut, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shot down a cease-fire proposal and vowed at the UN General Assembly that Israel would continue military operations in Lebanon.
Dahlgren sees it differently: he believes that the US is quietly satisfied with Israel’s effectiveness in Lebanon.
“The United States has been secretly hustling when Israel has received terrorists that the Americans have been looking for for a long time,” says Dahlgren.
United States has denied having been aware of the attacks or being involved in them. Dalhgren, however, believes Washington has given its blessing to kill Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon.
It took Israel months to kill the leaders of Hamas fighting in Gaza. In Lebanon, on the other hand, Hezbollah’s leadership has been “liquidated” in days – of course there, too, at the expense of a huge number of civilian casualties, Dahlgren points out.
“Possibly, the United States has given its blessing to this tactic, even though it is simultaneously talking about a cease-fire agreement,” says Dahlgren.
Dahlgren however, does not believe that Israel can completely destroy Hezbollah through military action.
“It has been shown in the past in Iraq and Afghanistan that this is not the case. The consequences have always been many times worse,” says Dahlgren. He refers to how the terrorist organization Isis was born after the destruction of the United States Saddam Hussein administration in Iraq.
“A really disgusting, violent, Islamist, jihadist movement was born that doesn’t care about anything,” says Dahlgren.
Nasrallah, who has now been killed by Israel, had bullied and kept Hezbollah in check all year, says Dahlgren.
Now no one is keeping track anymore. It could lead to escalating resistance against Israel, he says.
On Saturday, residents inspected the destruction of buildings bombed by Israel in the southern suburbs of Beirut. According to Susanne Dahlgren, all of Lebanon has united to help those who fled from the attacks.
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