China has surprisingly tested an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time since 1980. This demonstrates its military strength on the way to becoming a superpower. But there is a problem.
It is a rare report from Beijing: The Ministry of Defense announced on Wednesday that it had tested an intercontinental ballistic missile, the first test of its kind in 44 years. It is only the second publicly known long-range test in the history of the People’s Republic. The intercontinental ballistic missile, equipped with a dummy explosive, fell into the planned target area in the Pacific, it said.
The ministry described the test as a routine exercise in the missile troops’ annual training plan, which was also intended to test the weapon’s performance. It was not directed against any country or target, said spokesman Zhang Xiaogang. Relevant countries were informed in advance. There were no further details on the type of missile or the exact test area. The test shows that “the missile troops’ missile technology is mature and reliable,” the Hong Kong South China Morning Post quoted Chinese military expert Song Zhongping as saying. The troops have “strong operational capabilities.”
China aims to be on par with the USA with a modern army
However, it is unlikely that the test, which was carried out for the first time since 1980, is really just a “routine” test. It may also be a demonstration of strength. China is striving for the status of a real world power, on a par with the USA, including militarily. China is an official nuclear power and has had the DF-41, an intercontinental missile with a range of 12,000 to 15,000 kilometers, since 2017. This would allow the People’s Republic to USA Such missiles are typically capable of delivering nuclear weapons.
“China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country,” said Hans Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme at the Stockholm Peace Research Institute Sipri, in June at the launch of the Sipri Yearbook on global armaments. The institute estimated the number of Chinese nuclear warheads at around 500 as of January 2024. A year earlier, there were 410 – that corresponds to a pretty massive increase of almost 20 percent within a year. Although the USA and Russia still has far more nuclear warheads and missiles than China. But the rearmament shows that Beijing is serious about nuclear deterrence.
A Pentagon report from October 2023 states that China has doubled the number of intercontinental launch vehicles in recent years and is continuing to expand them. In 2022, the People’s Republic had about 350 such rockets. Three new silo fields with solid fuel for these rockets are also under construction.
How well the program will progress in detail in the future is uncertain, however. China’s missile forces are at the center of a corruption scandal in the military, in which Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who was ousted a year ago, and his predecessor Wei Fenghe, as well as at least two commanders of the elite troops, are believed to be involved. Bloomberg reported earlier this year that huge fields of missile silos in western China had lids that did not open properly – meaning that the missiles inside them could not launch effectively when needed. The tanks of many missiles were filled with water instead of fuel.
Missile tests in East Asia: Is an arms race looming?
In recent months, missile tests and exercises have increased in East Asia. Geopolitical tensions in the region are rising, and increased military activity is both a symptom and a consequence of this situation. North Korea is acting provocatively. In September, it tested several short-range ballistic missiles that crashed into the waters near Japan. In December 2023, North Korea tested an intercontinental missile for the first time, which, according to Japanese sources, traveled around 1,000 kilometers in 73 minutes before falling into the sea. It is also said to have a range of 15,000 kilometers. UN sanctions have long prohibited Pyongyang from carrying out such tests.
The US military, for its part, brought its mobile medium-range system to Asia in April for a joint exercise with the Philippines for the first time since 1987. According to Reuters The aim was to test the suitability of the system in a regional conflict. However, the system is still there – on the northern island of Luzon, on the coast of the South China Sea and not far from TaiwanChina recently protested again against the stationing – it sees itself, certainly rightly, as a target of the system.
US allies Japan and South Korea fear North Korea and also feel pressured by China. The Philippines are battling with increasingly aggressive Chinese coast guard ships for atolls in disputed sea regions and are receiving growing support from Washington. Many experts therefore fear an arms race in the Far East. The Chinese long-distance test is not exactly reassuring.
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