The shocking attack launched against Hezbollah This week in the Lebanonin which thousands of members of that pro-Iranian militia were injured when their bombs detonated at the same time beepers and walkie-talkies which they used to communicate, surprised not only that Islamist group but the entire world.
According to the criteria of
Former officers of the Israel Defense Forces’ military intelligence service, who are familiar with the use of advanced technology, were also surprised. At least that is what Brigadier General (retired) said. Yossi Kuperwasserwho was head of the research department in those ranks.
In an interview with this newspaper following the storm of explosions in midweek that left some 37 dead and more than 3,000 injured during that attack, Kuperwasser, currently a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Foreign and Security Affairs, analyses what happened and what Israel can expect now.
It is also worth remembering that the Israeli government has not claimed responsibility for the attacks, but has not made any effort to deny what everyone is saying to it.
Although you finished your military career in the intelligence service many years ago, you know the subject inside out. Were you surprised by the attack attributed to Israel?
Of course, like everyone else. I was surprised by the chosen way of attack, but not by the idea that there are all kinds of ideas in the Intelligence Service. Similar things have happened in the past, but not on this scale, not at all. Everyone surely remembers Yehia Ayyash, who died from an explosion in his cell phone.
This happened on January 5, 1996. Ayyash was known as Hamas’s “engineer,” who had prepared all the explosive charges used by the organization for suicide attacks in those years.
Exactly. But it was one, this is something totally different.
Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack attributed to it. If it really was Israel, what does it gain from this attack other than neutralizing thousands of Hezbollah men at the same time?
There are several important aspects to this. At the operational level, numerous Hezbollah members were wounded at mid- and high-ranking levels, as well as at lower ranks. There were a small number of deaths, but the number of those wounded who apparently suffered significant injuries is very significant.
At the strategic level, a very clear message was sent to Hezbollah. It was made clear to them that the continuation of attacks on Israel from across the border has a high price. This created a dimension of deterrence on the part of Israel that is very important.
But where does this leave Hezbollah? Can it afford not to react?
I think what happened forces Hezbollah to react, and it is clear that it will try to do so. But I think that, even if it does not recognize it, this makes it wonder whether it was worth it to link the Gaza issue with its attacks from Lebanon.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said he would stop attacking only when the war in Gaza ends.
Exactly. And there is a third important effect: the beeper attack humiliated Hezbollah. It made clear to its supporters and to its critics and enemies that it is weaker than it lets on, that it is vulnerable and infiltratable. On the other hand, this is precisely what forces the organization to react very forcefully.
So what does this mean for Israel? What should it do?
Israel is aware of the damage Hezbollah has suffered. It lost several of its best commanders in this war, even before the Beeper attack. It lost hundreds of men. It has several options on how to react. Israel has to prepare for all of them.
For Israel, the worst thing is to launch its precise missiles in large numbers?
They may have other ideas. I won’t give them any. They have already tried to kill Israeli public figures. Iran has tried it too. They think it’s a better idea than opening a general war, but so far they haven’t succeeded.
If it was Israel that carried out the beeper attack, do you think it conceived of it as part of something much larger?
Absolutely. It has to be part of something much larger. Remember that we are at war in the north because of attacks from Lebanon for almost a year.
I mean, is Israel going to take advantage of the weakness created by the beeper attack?
Yes, that’s right. It may be an escalation. Now the ball is in Hezbollah’s court. It must decide what to do. There are those who say that we should take advantage of the weakness and attack immediately, while everything is still hot. Take the initiative. And if it tries to attack us harshly, we should expand the war, even if the United States is not enthusiastic about it.
Isn’t it a mistake for Israel to wait?
No, it is not entirely their decision because after what Hezbollah does, we will decide how to proceed. In any case, my opinion is that before a wide-ranging war in the north, we must finish the Gaza issue, defeat Hamas, get it out of Gaza and then go north. But a brigade has already been sent from Gaza to the border with Lebanon. That is a very clear message. These are significant days, no doubt.
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