He scores 25% in the 1st scenario of the stimulated survey; Bruno Engler, João Leite, Fuad Noman and Duda Salabert are tied within the margin of error
Research released this Tuesday (16.Jul.2024) by Quaest shows the state deputy and presenter Mauro Tramonte (Republicans) with an advantage in the race for mayor of Belo Horizonte (MG). He has 25% of voting intentions. Here is the full (PDF – 23 MB).
Next are the state deputies Bruno Engler (PL), with 12%, and John Milk (PSDB), with 11%, the current mayor Fuad Noman (PSD), with 9%, and federal deputy Duda Salabert (PDT), with the same percentage. The 4 are tied within the margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Noman and Salabert are also technically tied with the senator Carlos Viana (Podemos), 8%, and with the federal deputy Rogerio Correia (PT), 7%.
Even though they were considered in the survey, state deputies Bella Gonçalves (Psol) and Ana Paula Siqueira (Rede) withdrew their pre-candidacy to support Rogério Correia over the last week. Both had 1% of voting intentions.
Here is the complete stimulated scenario for the 1st round:
- Mauro Tramonte (Republicans) – 25%;
- Bruno Engler (PL) – 12%;
- John Leite (PSDB) – 11%;
- Fuad Noman (PSD) – 9%;
- Duda Salabert (PDT) – 9%;
- Carlos Viana (Podemos) – 8%;
- Rogerio Correia (PT) – 7%;
- Gabriel Azevedo (MDB) – 2%;
- Luisa Barreto (Novo) – 1%;
- Bella Goncalves (Psol) – 1%
- Ana Paula Siqueira (Rede) – 1%;
- Undecided – 5%; and
- Blank/null/will not vote – 9%.
The survey was conducted by Quaest in Belo Horizonte from July 10 to 14, 2024. 1,200 people aged 16 or over in the capital of Minas Gerais were interviewed. The confidence interval is 95%. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, either way. The survey is registered in TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number MG-01625/2024. According to the institute that carried out the survey, the cost of the study was R$100,680. The amount was paid by the company Sedek.
The survey also considered 8 other scenarios stimulated from the 1st round. In all of them, Tramonte has the highest voting intention and the following 3 names are technically tied.
2ND ROUND
The survey also evaluated 7 possible scenarios for a second-round dispute. Mauro Tramonte has the biggest advantage when tested directly against other opponents.
Here are the percentages:
Tramonte x Belt
- Mauro Tramonte (Republicans) – 56%;
- Rogerio Correia (PT) – 19%;
- Undecided – 6%; and
- Blank/null/will not vote – 20%.
Tramonte x Engler
- Mauro Tramonte (Republicans) – 54%;
- Bruno Engler (PL) –20%;
- Undecided – 5%; and
- Blank/null/will not vote – 20%.
Tramonte x Noman
- Mauro Tramonte (Republicans) – 54%;
- Fuad Noman (PSD) –23%;
- Undecided – 5%; and
- Blank/null/will not vote – 18%.
Viana x Noman
- Carlos Viana (Podemos) – 42%;
- Fuad Noman (PSD) –27%;
- Undecided – 8%; and
- Blank/null/will not vote – 23%.
Engler x Noman
- Bruno Engler (PL) – 31%;
- Fuad Noman (PSD) –29%;
- Undecided – 10%; and
- Blank/null/will not vote – 29%.
Engler vs. Salabert
- Bruno Engler (PL) – 31%;
- Duda Salabert (PDT) –28%;
- Undecided – 10%; and
- Blank/null/will not vote – 30%.
Engler x Correia
- Bruno Engler (PL) – 30%;
- Rogerio Correia (PT) –28%;
- Undecided – 11%; and
- Blank/null/will not vote – 31%.
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