Croatia has experienced an up-and-down Euro 2024, facing significant challenges in its group. After a disappointing start with a crushing defeat against Spain and an agonizing draw against Albania, their late draw with Italy in the last match has left the Croatian team depending on external results to advance as one of the best third parties in the tournament.
Groups where it can be better than the third:
Group C (Slovenia, Denmark, Serbia):
Croatia is in direct competition with the third places in other groups, seeking to surpass them in points and goal balance. In Group C, both Slovenia and Denmark accumulate 2 points each, while Serbia has 1 point. Croatia has a goal balance of -3, which is worse than Slovenia and Denmark (both with goal balances of 0), and worse than Serbia (-1). For Croatia to advance as the fourth best third place instead of Slovenia and Denmark, it needs specific results:
Group F (Czech Republic, Georgia):
In Group F, Czech Republic and Georgia have 1 point each. Neither of these teams can win their last match for Croatia to have a chance to overtake them in the best third place table. This would ensure that Croatia has more points than the third in Group F and therefore a better position in the third place standings. Because of the goal difference, a 2-point tie between any of the teams goes against Croatia, who will always have a worse +/- scorer. So what should happen is:
Groups where it cannot be better than the third:
Group A (Hungary):
Hungary already has 3 points in Group A, so Croatia cannot reach them, regardless of the results in the other groups.
Group D (Austria):
Austria has also accumulated 3 points in Group D, securing its position as the best third place regardless of what happens in other groups.
Group E (all with 3 points):
All teams in Group E already have 3 points, making it impossible for Croatia to overtake them as the best third-place finisher.
Croatia faces a decisive situation at Euro 2024, where it needs specific results in other groups to have a chance to qualify as one of the best third places. The Croatian team must wait and see how the final matches in Groups C and F develop, while evaluating the possibility of advancing based on results and goal balance. This phase underlines the competitive nature of the tournament and the importance of every detail on the road to the round of 16.
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