18/06/2024 – 13:22
Both are ostracized by much of the international community. At the meeting in Pyongyang, the Russian leader and the North Korean dictator want to present themselves to the world as allies who challenge the USA. As Vladimir Putin heads towards North Korea, where he arrives this Tuesday (18/06) to a two-day visit, both Moscow and Pyongyang hope that the Russian leader’s talks with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un will strengthen the relationship between the two countries, nations considered pariahs by much of the world.
The talks are expected to produce a series of economic and military initiatives. Analysts warn that some of the agreements – especially those on the exchange of weapons and advanced missile and satellite technology – are likely to be kept secret.
Beyond these pacts, however, both sides are equally eager to make a grand show of statesmanship. Kim Jong-un is desperate to burnish his credentials as a major world leader, and satellite images of the North Korean capital show lavish preparations for Putin’s arrival in central Pyongyang.
Putin, for his part, wants to demonstrate that Russia still has friends and allies and that he is free to travel abroad despite UN and US sanctions.
international arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court over the abduction of Ukrainian children by Russian troops.
Kim’s “victory” in welcoming Putin
“The list of countries willing to host Putin is shorter than ever, but for Kim Jong-un, this visit is a victory,” said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in South Korea. “The meeting not only improves North Korea’s status among countries that oppose the US-led international order, but also helps bolster Kim’s domestic legitimacy.”
“Moscow and Pyongyang will likely continue to deny that they commit violations of international law, but they have notably changed from hiding their illicit activities to flaunting their cooperation,” he told DW.
“Putin’s visit is, in part, to thank North Korea for acting as an ‘arsenal for autocracy’ in support of its illegal invasion of Ukraine,” Easley added. “After Kim Jong-un traveled to Russia for the previous two bilateral summits, this reciprocity visit is politically important because it allows Pyongyang’s propaganda to portray Kim as a world leader.”
Moscow and Pyongyang united against the US
Even before landing in Pyongyang, Putin announced the creation of unspecified new systems for international trade and payments. Russia has been effectively excluded from Western-led international cooperation structures due to sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine. Likewise, North Korea has been unable to access banks and other commercial facilities as punishment for its nuclear weapons and missile programs.
In an article published in North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper on Tuesday morning (18/06), Putin said the relationship between the two countries is “based on the principles of equality, mutual respect and trust.”
He also expressed his gratitude to North Korea for Pyongyang’s support for the “special military operation” in Ukraine and said the United States is “doing everything we can to impose on the world the so-called ‘rules-based order,’ which is essentially nothing more than a global neocolonial dictatorship based on a ‘double standard’.”
Putin’s “willpower”
An accompanying editorial praised Putin as “an extraordinary politician” who is “strengthening national power [da Rússia] with your refined skills and strong will.”
Yakov Zinberg, a Russian-born international relations professor at Japan’s Kokushikan University, sees Putin’s visit to Pyongyang as “threatening.”
“This is a calculated threat to the security alliance between the US, South Korea and Japan in the region and is designed to send the message that not only is it strong in responding to NATO in Europe, but that it is also being strong when reacting in the Far East,” he said.
Zinberg predicts Kim will commit to supplying Russia with more artillery shells, in addition to the millions of rounds that analysts believe have already been sent to the front lines in Ukraine. In return, Putin will continue to provide technological support for North Korean nuclear, missile and space projects.
Russia and North Korea deny there is a transfer of ammunition and any illegal cooperation in military and satellite technology.
Russian military support for North Korea?
Lim Eun-jung, associate professor of international studies at Kongju National University in South Korea, adds that Kim made the “strategic choice” to support Russia from the start of the invasion of Ukraine, in part to reduce his dependence on China. to gain political support on the world stage.
“Kim went to the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East in September last year, and it appears that he managed to obtain more advanced Russian technology,” she told DW. “I expect him to seek the same thing again at this meeting, but he could also ask for a firm military commitment from Putin, and if he gets that in writing, that would put North Korea in a very strong position.”
Exchange of natural resources for labor
Putin is also likely to agree to provide the natural resources the North Korean economy wants, including oil and gas. Meanwhile, Kim is expected to agree to send more workers to Russia to make up for the shortfall caused by military conscription.
Lim said Kim is undoubtedly making the most of the deal, noting that even Kim’s friends in China could object to North Korea’s rapprochement with Russia.
“This is a big concern in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington, but also in Beijing,” she said.
However, Easley suggests that there are likely to be flaws not far below the surface of what is effectively an alliance of convenience.
“The alignment of such states is a threat to global trade and peace,” he said. “However, these states do not share enduring alliance institutions and values; they are only weakly united by resistance to the application of international laws and norms.”
“In addition to wealthy democracies, many other governments have enduring interests in rules-based trade and diplomacy,” Easley concluded. “They must urgently apply sanctions to help ensure that the Putin-Kim vision of international relations fails.”
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