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Scandals, criminal trials and no consequences? Donald Trump’s poll numbers have been spared for a long time, but in Ohio the trend could reverse.
Columbus – Looking at the US election 2024 fight in November Joe Biden and Donald Trump currently vying for the favor of all federal states in the United States. The polling institute Marist has now published a study that sees Trump’s lead over President Biden in Ohio currently at its lowest point during the 2024 election cycle.
Ohio is traditionally white, Catholic and industrial. Politically it is one of the so-called swing statesbut tends to be more Republican. The last two US elections in 2016 and 2020 were won by the republican in Ohio with an eight-point lead. However, according to the current poll, this lead is shrinking.
In Ohio, Republicans show a backward trend – Donald Trump loses
Surveys of 1,137 registered voters showed that Trump is only ahead in Ohio by 48 percent to 41 percent. Newsweek According to experts, Trump still expects to win the Buckeye State in November, but his current seven-point lead over Biden is the smallest lead in an Ohio election poll since November 2023, according to a collection of polls by FiveThirtyEight shows.
The poll is the first to be conducted in Ohio after Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in his hush money trial on May 30. It is not yet clear whether the conviction will really damage Trump’s image. However, a loss in support for Republicans was also evident in the special election campaign for the seat in Ohio’s 6th district. Republican State Senator Michael Rulli won by just ten points against his Democratic opponent Michael Kripchak on Tuesday. This is a drastic loss compared to his four previous elections, which he won by more than 30 points.
The result in Ohio often shows the result of the entire US election
Ohio was considered a showcase state for decades because it had voted for the ultimately victorious presidential candidate in every election between Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Trump in 2016. Ohio’s lead was often reflected in national results as well.
However, the trend was reversed in 2020, when Trump managed to keep Ohio but lost the election overall to Biden. Nor did Trump’s eight-point victory in Ohio in 2020 reflect what was happening nationwide by a margin of more than 12 points, with Biden beat Trump by 4.5 percent nationwide in 2020It remains to be seen whether Ohio can become a bellwether state again in November. While Trump is expected to win Ohio easily, the overall race between Trump and Biden appears to be neck and neck.
Biden wins approval among whites – and loses among black US population
The poll’s breakdown shows Trump as the preferred candidate over Biden among both independent voters (43 percent to 37) and respondents under 35 (46 percent to 37). But Biden has managed to narrow Trump’s lead among white voters in Ohio. The poll shows Trump has a 14-point lead over Biden among that demographic (52 percent to 38), compared to the Republican’s 21-point lead in the 2020 election.
However, the president has lost significant support among black voters. In 2020, Biden received 83 percent of the vote, but in the Marist poll, this figure has now fallen to 57 percent. Trump received 25 percent of the black electorate in the survey. Trump is also the preferred candidate in the potentially hottest election issue, the economy. A total of 59 percent of Ohioans believe that they and their families were “better off” during Trump’s presidency, including 13 percent of DemocratsIn comparison, 39 percent of Ohioans believe their family will be better off financially under the Biden administration.
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