The war between Israel and Hamas was the starting signal for one of the most turbulent times in the recent history of the Middle East.
In addition to this conflict, the region has been shaken in recent weeks by clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon; mutual attacks between Western forces and Houthi rebels in Yemen; Iran's operations against targets in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan, and raids by other pro-Iran militias against targets of the US, Israel and their allies.
These multiple sources of violence fuel fears of a larger war in the Middle East and alter traditional regional power alliances.
The rivalry, on the one hand, between the State of Israel and the Arab world and, on the other hand, the religious division between Shiites, traditionally represented by Iran, and Sunnis, of which Saudi Arabia sees itself as the leading power, have been two constants when it comes to explaining the puzzle in the Middle East.
But experts consulted by BBC Mundo agree that the region has been agitated lately less by issues of differences of faith and more by temporary political and military alliances.
Iran and non-state armed groups
Iran set off alarm bells in the international community when in just three days between January 15 and 17, it attacked targets in three different countries: Iraq, Syria and Pakistan.
While the actions were against specific targets, such as a suspected Israeli intelligence base in Iraq and rival Islamist groups in the case of Syria and Pakistan, experts attributed the attacks to Iranian interest in showing strength in turbulent times.
Tehran repeats that it does not want to get involved in a major conflict, although in recent weeks its so-called “axis of resistance” has been very active.
This axis is made up of armed groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon; Shiite militias in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan; Hamas and other militant groups in the Palestinian territories, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The BBC Persian service describes his ideology as “markedly anti-American and anti-Israel.”
All, to a greater or lesser extent, have attacked Israeli or allied targets since the war in Gaza broke out in October.
Haizam Amirah-Fernández, a Middle East expert at the Elcano Royal Institute, explains to BBC Mundo that “Iran's alliances with its 'axis of resistance' are some of the most stable” and long-lasting in the region.
“The alliances between Iran and these groups are a product of the Iranian revolution of 1979, and function as a way to export its model and promote its political purposes,” Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute, explains to BBC Mundo. based in London.
According to experts, these groups emerged from discontent with the political reality of their countries, something that Iran takes advantage of to expand its regional influence.
In an article published in 2020 by BBC Mundo, Kayvan Hosseini, a journalist with the BBC Persian service, stated that all of these groups receive “logistical, economic and ideological support” from Iran.
Here, Michael Kugelman, director of South Asia at the Wilson Center, asks not to ignore the role of religious sectarianism due to “Iran's closeness to Shiite groups and the Saudi counterpart to Sunnis.”
But, at the same time, he highlights that the current competitions have much more to do with the struggle of powers than with religious differences.
That would explain, for example, Iranian support for Hamas as a counterweight to Israel despite the fact that this military group comes from the Sunni branch of Islam.
Or that within the same groups they take different sides depending on the conflict. Hamas and Hezbollah supported different fronts in the Syrian war, but both are united in their goal of ending Israel.
As for Iran's “isolation” in the region – a reference to the lack of alliances with state actors with the exception of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria – experts attribute this to two main factors.
First, “because the model of exporting the Islamic revolution was seen as a threat by the oil dynasties of the Gulf and other countries in the region and, second, because Iran sees itself as entitled to be a regional hegemonic actor through history.” of his country, its resources, population and heritage of the Persian empire,” says Amirah-Fernández.
“And this collides with the ambitions of other countries, especially Saudi Arabia,” adds the analyst.
The bloc of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has taken several steps in recent years to establish itself as a leader in the Arab world.
A few decades ago, the Arab center of gravity was concentrated in Egypt, the country once with the greatest demographic, political and cultural weight in the region.
But power has been shifting to the countries of the Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula, where the exploitation of vast energy resources generated abundant wealth that little by little was transformed into influence on the political scene.
First, small countries like the United Arab Emirates or Qatar stood out, but then, especially with the de facto rise to power of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, “Saudi Arabia changed on a large scale within the country and globally.”
“Its rise was also reinforced by its rich hydrocarbon economy and by the support provided by the United States during Donald Trump's presidency as a measure of pressure against Iran,” says analyst Amirah-Fernández.
Experts agree that Saudi Arabia is the leader and de facto leader of the Arab League, a regional organization of 22 countries.
“In general, although each country has its own ambitions, even Egypt and Jordan position themselves and follow the guidance established by the Saudis,” says Khatib.
For about 40 years, Saudi Arabia and Iran maintained an open rivalry that some experts came to describe as “the new Middle East Cold War” and, in recent years, this was aggravated by 'proxy wars' in various pockets of the region.
In Yemen, Saudi Arabia has been supporting government forces in their war against Houthi rebels since 2015.
Iran, accused by its rivals of supporting the Houthis, has denied that it sends weapons to this group, which is responsible for orchestrating missile and drone attacks against Saudi cities and infrastructure.
Saudi Arabia also accused Iran of interfering in Lebanon and Iraq, where Shiite militias have amassed vast political and military influence. In addition, some of these groups have been blamed for attacks on Saudi facilities.
In March 2023, Saudi-Iranian relations entered a new era by reestablishing diplomatic ties and reviving security, trade, economic and investment agreements in a negotiation mediated by China.
One more example, as the experts consulted by BBC Mundo warn, of the constant fluidity and complexity of power relations in the Middle East.
Qatar's mediating role
Khatib and Amirah-Fernández agree on placing Qatar on the side of the bloc led by the Saudis, although they also highlight its mediating role that makes it a peculiar case in the regional balances of power.
Currently, Qatari negotiators fill a unique role as primary mediators between Israel and Hamas.
And for years, this billionaire Gulf country has been involved in rapprochement with countries like Israel or Iran and with political groups very different from those supported by the rest of its neighbors, mostly Islamist groups such as Hamas itself or the Muslim Brotherhood, the latter old rivals of the Saudis.
These approaches have not always been well received by their neighbors.
“In 2017, Qatar was blocked by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen and Libya because it began to be seen as a threat due to its political ambitions,” Khatib recalls.
Qatar is a tremendously rich but small country, which puts it in a vulnerable situation that leads it, as political scientist Mehran Kamrava pointed out in his book Qatar: Small State, Big Politics, to seek multiple and varied alliances as a way to preserve its security and “enhance its diplomatic stature and position.”
The embargo on Qatar was eliminated in 2021 and its relations with its neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia, seem to be experiencing a friendly stage.
Of course, Khatib reiterates, Qatar still wants to “establish itself as a more mediating and conciliatory country in its geopolitical strategy.”
Where is Israel located?
Amirah-Fernández defines the Israeli case as an “abnormal” example of its alliances in the region and Khatib says that it “acts independently without belonging to any alliance of countries.”
It maintains a long and undeclared shadow war against Iran and the militias it supports, where low-scale hostilities are repeated without reaching, so far, a total and open conflict.
It also does not have an easy relationship with its Arab neighbors.
Israel, along with Turkey and Iran, are the only non-Arab countries in the Middle East, where it has very limited recognition as a State.
Of the Arab nations, only Egypt since 1979, Jordan since 1994 and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan since 2020 recognize the Israeli State.
According to Amirah-Fernández, this is mainly due to the fact that “Israel continues to be seen as an occupier and aggressor before the absolute majority of populations in the Arab-Muslim neighborhood due to its conflict with the Palestinians, deepened by the current war in Gaza.”
Shortly before the war against Hamas broke out on October 7, 2023, Israel was in negotiations to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, which would have been a major advance for the Jewish State.
However, days after that attack it was reported that Saudi officials asked the United States to paralyze these three-way negotiations.
The experts consulted by BBC Mundo find it difficult for Israel to abandon this “abnormality” in its alliances and relations without a clear solution to its conflict with the Palestinians.
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BBC-NEWS-SRC: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/crgkrpeeepeo, IMPORTING DATE: 2024-01-28 05:07:03
JOSÉ CARLOS CUETO – BBC NEWS WORLD
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