The latest massacres that occurred in Mexico have turned the security of the population into an unavoidable issue of strategic value during electoral times. If a failure can be attributed to the Government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, it is the violence that is rampant throughout the country and that in recent weeks has left two tragedies of enormous significance in the minds of the citizens, the five medical students murdered in Celaya on December 3 and the massacre of 11 young people who were enjoying a posada last weekend in Salvatierra, both in the State of Guanajuato. Of course, these are not the only homicides, the country still counts close to 100 a day and the matter has allowed the opposition to reverse the president's maxim: the Alliance candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez, now repeats that “politics are negligent.” of hugs to criminals and shooting of young people.” Insecurity is going to be the big issue of the campaign on the way to the polls in June 2024.
“It's ugly,” says María Eugenia Valdés Vega, an expert in Political Processes at the UAM Iztapalapa, to handle these issues with electoral zeal, “because they leave a feeling of apathy among voters, especially the youngest ones, “but it's okay. , because that is democracy.” “The Morena candidate will have to take great care of this matter, and also at the local level,” warns the professor. He is right, violence can be the stone in Claudia Sheinbaum's supposedly smooth path.
For many years, organized crime has been identified by Mexicans as the country's number one problem. And they don't say it just because it is a genuine concern, but they feel it every day, the shots are heard everywhere and increasingly closer. People perceive themselves vulnerable in surveys. “Since the time of Felipe Calderón, and also in this six-year term, citizens have been identifying insecurity as the main problem. There was only one moment, in the pandemic years, when the economy and employment were bad,” explains Heidi Osuna, director of the pollster Enkoll. “It is likely,” she says, “that violence will be an important factor in the electoral campaign if people perceive that there is a candidate who offers a different formal proposal, although most do not usually do so,” she says.
For now, the candidates cannot publicly express specific government programs, but their projects are visible between the lines and the opposition always puts the issue of insecurity first. Gálvez repeats that this is the main scourge to combat and has not wasted a moment to blame the president for his lack of results in this matter, as well as his blunders trying to justify the latest attacks, which he always attributes to drug use and puts special emphasis on Guanajuato, as if the rest of the country did not burn in the same flames. The PAN candidate, for now, outlines the need to strengthen new agreements with the United States, as well as her confidence in new technologies to eradicate the problem.
In 2018, López Obrador achieved victory with a different proposal from that of his ancestors: the idea that was condensed in the phrase “hugs, not bullets” was that many civilians had died in the skirmishes against the mafia bosses without achieving the objective. to eradicate violence, something that will only be achieved, the president always says, by putting the gunpowder in the foundations, that is, by attacking the structural problems of poverty and lack of training and employment among young people, the main perpetrators and victims of a country armed to the teeth. But all of this has not had the expected results and the statistics are stubborn in this regard, no one can deny that violence is eating away at the entire country and that organized crime has taken over large areas of the territory and its economy.
Mexico City is one of the few oases of peace, as security experts call them, that the country presents, and even so, bullets can be heard from time to time. The Morenoist candidate to govern the capital was initially Omar García Harfuch, until then chief of police in the city government. The message was simple, it offered peace of mind to the neighbors and at the same time contributed to show some success in this area for the Government. But Harfuch fell from the poster in favor of his partner Clara Brugada and the issue of security gave way to the great Morenoist bet before the electorate: “The poor first.”
So “the most important vein of the opposition to attack the Government in the electoral contest is security, an issue where the official statistics themselves recognize that what was wanted has not been achieved. We all wanted more security, and the truth is that that has not happened. People applaud other things, but the opposition has the possibility of exploiting this issue,” says Valdés Vega.
Although there are places where the economy and lack of work continue to be the most highlighted shortcoming in surveys, insecurity has its first place at the national level. “In Guanajuato, for example, the word homicide has risen above other crimes that are reported, such as home robbery, for example, for a long time,” says Osuna. The following surveys will determine to what extent discouragement over the recent wave of violence and their own perception of insecurity has penetrated among citizens. But that will undoubtedly be a tricky issue in the electoral contest.
Days ago, the opposition qualified its attacks on Morena, with the understanding that there are policies, such as social aid or the economy in general, that it is better not to touch, because they will not find an echo among the people, if they do not arouse rejection and they lose voters. Insecurity has left a great asset for Xóchitl Gálvez. They know that it is a close and devastating issue for anyone and they are in a position to complain to the President of the Government, responsible for a strategy that has not borne fruit. López Obrador, the great rock against which the opposition candidates crash, presents here a crack to drive the wedge into. Perhaps Claudia Sheinbaum will have to expose the data she obtained in the city, where security was always listed as an approved subject, and perhaps Harfuch, who is working on her team, will be the only ace up her sleeve to divert attention from this terrible matter that tarnishes the image of Mexico and exposes the great Achilles heel of the transformations that the Government presumes
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