The war in the Palestinian Gaza strip, the issue that has dominated international politics for six weeks, has almost not appeared in the Argentine electoral campaign beyond some criticism from the far-right Javier Milei, 53, of the official candidate and minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, 51, for what he considers a soft attitude of the Peronist Government towards the conflict. He responded, for his part, with a striking gesture: public criticism of an official note from the Foreign Ministry that censored the Israeli invasion of Gaza and with the promise that, if he reaches the Presidency, he will classify Hamas as a terrorist organization, online. with the US and the European Union.
Sunday’s presidential election is very open, with a large number of undecided people and polls that point to a tie with a slight advantage for the outsider Milei. The Peronist won the first round with 37% compared to 30% for his rival.
There is little doubt that a victory for Milei, who defines himself as a liberal anarcho-capitalist, could be a real earthquake, at least dialectically, for foreign policy. Observers estimate that, with Massa, there would be a continuous policy regarding international relations but with a hardening of the tone towards problematic allies such as Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela. The candidate that Peronism presents on this occasion is located more to the center than the Kirchnerist Executive.
Milei has made it clear that he intends for his preferred allies to be the US, Israel and “the free world” in general. Although he has reduced the virulence of his proclamations and attacks after finishing second in the first round, he did not hesitate to criticize China, Argentina’s first trading partner, for being communist and announce that his plan is to “lower the price” of the bilateral relationship with the superpower. Asian. One of his mantras is that the State is “a nuisance” and therefore will leave international trade in private hands, but analyst Carolina Zaccato, researcher at the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI), warns that those words denote “a great lack of knowledge of how international trade works, given that it is the States that set tariffs, exceptions, sanitary and phytosanitary standards, etc. Whether he likes it or not, so that Argentines can export their products and services, the next president will be forced to “coordinate with the rulers and economic ministers of countries of opposite political sign” to his own.
Jorge Castro, a veteran analyst, agrees that, if Milei emerges victorious, without a doubt in the case of China “the reality of things will prevail because international relations are not an ideological or doctrinal issue. “What is at stake is a very real issue.” Massa, the official candidate, took advantage of the last electoral debate to summarize this tangible issue in a figure: two million jobs would be in danger.
Both specialists also remember that, in recent months, China has become Argentina’s lender.
The Brazilian Jair Bolsonaro has already experienced what the unavoidable weight of realpolitik. Upon reaching the Presidency in 2019, and seeing what was at stake, it took him little time to put aside the incendiary rhetoric towards Beijing and even made an official visit to Xi Jinping.
For the analyst Castro, a victory for Milei “would mean the end of Mercosur”, the bloc that Argentina forms with Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, and the end of the strategic relationship with Brazil. Zaccato, also a professor at the British University of Saint Andrews, considers that, with the ultra Milei, “the profound impasse in which Mercosur is located, with the risk of falling into irrelevance”, but in a more optimistic forecast it does not rule out that it serves as a stimulus and promotes a debate focused on “the renewal of the bloc and [en] move towards greater liberalization of intra-bloc trade as well as promote a joint export strategy of industries that are strongly intertwined, such as, for example, the automotive industry between Argentina and Brazil.” 80% of the exports of the Argentine automobile sector go to the neighboring country.
Castro emphasizes that, along with China, Brazil is the other vital commercial partner and strategic political ally. A relationship that is crucial to pamper. For Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with whom Milei announced that he would not work before calling him a “communist and corrupt,” Massa’s victory would be a relief, says the analyst.
On the other hand, if Minister Massa wins, changes in foreign policy are also expected, but not radical. With the Peronist at the head of state, analyst Zaccato foresees “continuity in the renegotiation of the debt with the IMF, continuity in the relationship with China, continuity in the reaffirmation of the strategic link with Brazil.” Yes, new rhetoric is expected towards the rulers of Nicaragua, Cuba or Venezuela, says the specialist, “with more mentions of democratic erosion and restrictions on human rights.”
And since this is Argentina, a country that brings two heads of state to the world map, in the electoral campaign there has also been a lot of talk about Jorge Mario Bergoglio, the highest authority of the Catholic Church and the Vatican. The far-right Milei, raised Catholic and flirting with Judaism, has mercilessly insulted Pope Francis. E 2020 accused him of being “the representative of the Evil One on Earth” as well as “a disgusting lefty.” In the last presidential debate, Massa asked his opponent if he intends to apologize to the Pontiff. Milei said that he had already asked for them privately.
Argentines are saddened by the fact that, after a decade of pontificate, Francis has not yet visited their homeland. Massa has promised to work so that a papal trip materializes in 2024. Questioned by in the debate, Milei responded: “If I have to apologize, I will do it. I even invite him to come to Argentina. “We will receive him with all the honors of a head of State and spiritual head of the Church.”
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