Presidential elections | HS-gallup predicts a tight second round: Haavisto and Stubb are now the most popular candidates

The presidential election the second round can become a thriller, predicts a recent poll by Helsingin Sanomat.

According to HS Gallup Pekka Haavisto (green) is the most popular candidate. 28 percent of those who took part in the survey would vote for Haavisto, who was the candidate of the Association of Voters, if the first round of the presidential election were held now.

The second most popular is the future candidate of the coalition Alexander Stubb. 17 percent of those who responded to the survey would now vote for him.

It already seems very possible that there will be a second round in the elections. If Haavisto and Stubb, who are at the top of the HS-gallop, were against each other, the race would be very tight based on the research.

In that situation, 51 percent of respondents would vote for Haavisto, 46 ​​percent for Stubb. Three percent still did not know how to express their opinion.

Yle also published on Friday presidential poll. The results are similar to the HS-gallup: Haavisto and Stubb are the most popular, and in a possible second round, Haavisto narrowly narrowly passed Stubb.

Election day is a little over three months away, and the lineup of candidates is starting to become clear. The presidential election will be held on Sunday, January 28, 2024, with a possible second round on February 11, 2024.

In the HS-gallup, the respondent was asked to say who they would vote for in the first round. In addition, the certainty of this choice was asked.

In addition, 21 pairwise comparisons were made between the most popular candidates. The respondents had to say which candidate they would vote for if they were facing each other in the second round and one of them had to be chosen.

Haavisto and Stubb have a clear neck in favor of the next candidates. The third most popular candidate according to the HS-galup is from the center Olli Rehn with 10 percent support. Basic Finns Jussi Halla-aho is right in his position with nine percent support.

Just collected his voter’s card Mika Aaltola gets eight percent and a left-wing coalition Lee Andersson six percent popularity.

Sdp’s future candidate Jutta Urpilainen has so far continued as an EU commissioner and has hardly participated in the domestic debate. It can be seen: Urpilainen would now be the choice of three percent.

Christian Democrats Sari Essayah is two percent and Liike Nytin Harry Harkimo less than one percent in popularity. Scattered popularity is coming to a few candidates who are still collecting support cards. Candidate applications must be submitted to the Helsinki Constituency Board by December 12.

Ten percent of HS-galup respondents still can’t say who they would vote for.

From the support of Li Andersson and Jutta Urpilainen, it can be seen that quite a few of the Dems and left-wing allies are, at least at the moment, planning to stand behind Pekka Haavisto already in the first round of the elections.

The cornerstone of support for the other main candidates is the support from their own party members.

A total of 69 percent of respondents intend to vote in the presidential election for sure and 23 percent probably. The most certain are respondents who live in the capital region and are well-educated, with a good income, 80 percent of whom intend to vote.

In the last presidential election, the turnout in the first round was 66.8 percent. There was no need for a second round because the president Sauli Niinistö got more than half of the votes on the first try.

Six years earlier, the turnout in the first round was 72.8 percent. In the second round, where Niinistö and Haavisto faced each other, the voting percentage dropped to 68.9 percent.

Candidates the order of preference remained the same when asked about those who definitely intend to vote in the presidential election.

Pekka Haavisto is certainly the most popular candidate among voters with 31 percent support. Certainly 19 percent of the voters would vote for Alexander Stubb.

The HS-gallup also asked if the respondent is sure that he will vote for the candidate he has chosen on election day, or if he could think of voting for another candidate.

The majority, or 76 percent of all respondents, thought that they would probably or definitely vote for the candidate they have chosen in the first round. Only 15 percent said that they might very well vote for another candidate.

The older the respondent is, the more certain he is going to be behind the choice he made now. On the other hand, only a third of those under 30 are currently sure of their choice.

The most certain are those who are already going to vote for Jussi Halla-aho. 60 percent of them plan to do it on election day for sure and 33 percent probably.

Those who chose Haavisto and Stubbi are also more sure of their position than average, but behind Rehn and Aaltola there is a wavering. For example, only 29 percent of those who voted for Aaltola now are sure that their choice will last until election day.

in HS gallup 21 different pairings were tested if there is a second round of the election.

When Haavisto was tested against the six main competitors, Haavisto would beat them all. The competition against Stubb would be the tightest.

If Haavisto and Rehn were facing each other, Haavisto would get 53 percent and Rehn’s 44 percent support. Aaltola would also give opposition, but Haavisto would also win with 56 percent against 41 percent.

Stubb would win in the second round all other opponents except Pekka Haaviston. The tightest fight would be against Olli Rehn, and most clearly Stubb would cover Jussi Halla-aho.

If the situation were that Haavisto and Stubb were facing each other in the second round, each would initially keep their own first-round voters. Those who voted for Li Andersson and Jutta Urpilai would move behind Haavisto.

Stubb would get the majority of the voters of Jussi Halla-Aho, Olli Rehn, Sari Essayah and Mika Aaltola. A quarter of those who voted for Rehn and a third for Aaltola would move to the Haavisto camp in the second round.

In a Haavisto-Stubb arrangement, 60 percent of women would vote for Haavisto and 54 percent of men would vote for Stubb. Haavisto is also clearly more popular with young voters under the age of 30 than Stubb.