HS Analysis | Petteri Orpo ran into Antti Häkkänen, and it might backfire on the chairman of the coalition

The coalition chairman, prime minister Petteri Orpo said on Monday that the party government has authorized him to ask by Alexander Stubb the coalition’s presidential candidate.

Stubb says in the next few days that he will agree to Orpo’s request.

So the matter is clear in this respect. Especially when the Minister of Defense Antti Häkkänen told on Monday in the message service X (formerly Twitter) that he supports Orpo’s decision. Häkkänen also said that he does not intend to stand as a candidate at the party convention.

Therefore, the coalition’s extraordinary party meeting to be held in the fall unanimously approves Stubb as the coalition’s presidential candidate.

Orphan told about the “overall assessment of the situation” that was behind his decision. According to Orpo, it was based on, among other things, research information, data and polls, as well as the candidates’ resumes and ability to perform the task of president.

On Monday, at the meeting of the party board, according to one of those present, surveys and data were presented, based on which Stubb was clearly the strongest of the coalition’s possible candidates in various questions.

And Stubb has plenty of experience. After all, he has served as Minister of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Trade, Finance and Prime Minister, as well as a Member of the European Parliament. Currently working as a professor in Florence, Italy, Stubb once did his dissertation on EU politics.

The coalition will therefore get an experienced and qualified candidate in foreign policy. So everything is fine in the party.

Not necessarily.

of HS according to information, Orpo called through the members of the coalition’s party board between July and August. It is known that all members of the party board supported Orpo’s plans for Stubb’s candidacy – except the party’s vice-chairman Antti Häkkänen.

At the beginning of August, we saw quite a news bomb when Häkkänen told to the public that he is “seriously” considering the presidential candidacy. It couldn’t have been a complete surprise to Orpo, because he knew based on the phone conversation that Häkkänen didn’t necessarily support Stubb’s choice.

Still, the fact that Häkkänen told the public about his plans must have been somewhat of a surprise to Orpo. Häkkänen apparently did not warn Orpo in advance about his exit. This can be considered quite a mistake in etiquette.

Well, on Monday, chairman Orpo put Häkkänen on the spot and got his own way through. Orpo showed leadership. At least that’s how it was interpreted in some of the media’s comments on Monday.

But it can also be interpreted the other way around.

Häkkäsen going solo might weaken Orpo’s position within the party.

First of all, knocking out the members’ vote does not look good in everyone’s eyes. Of course, party democracy is important.

The episode also showed that there is division within the coalition. Häkkä has been considered the favorite of value-conservative members of the coalition – although in fact he does not even ideologically represent the most conservative wing of the party.

In any case, the events of the last couple of weeks probably deepened the rift between the various factions of the party.

Häkkänen received a lot of support within the party for his candidacy consideration. Several constituencies of the coalition also publicly flagged for Häkkänen.

The most interesting example was the Koumpusnuet. The organization announced at the end of June bulletinwhere it hoped that Stubb would run.

On Monday, the same organization had a completely different opinion. It published bulletin, where they supported Häkkäs and hoped for a member vote on the coalition’s presidential candidate. Monday’s announcement was not, however, the official statement of the youth group – it was therefore not approved by the organization’s federal government. Instead, the “majority of the members of the federal youth coalition government” and six district organizations were behind the announcement.

Of course, spinning like a weather vane looks pretty funny. However, it must be remembered that at the time of the first press release of the Kokosumu Youth at the end of June, there was no information about Häkkänen’s desire to become a candidate.

And the Kokoomusnuoret did not necessarily support Häkkäs because they would be able to pick on chairman Orpo. More likely, the background was simply that many people thought Häkkä was a good presidential candidate. After all, Häkkänen once also served as the chairman of the Koumpus Youth.

Antti Häkkänen commented on the presidential patterns himself a few days ago on Facebook. According to Häkkänen, the coalition’s presidential candidate process is progressing “as planned and agreed”.

“Once again, some outsiders want to see conspiracies and internal arguments, but those magazine stories are complete bullshit. This is about the presidential candidate of the Coalition, not about anything else,” Häkkänen wrote.

Häkkänen’s claim is nonsense. That is, in the sense that it was not just about choosing the coalition’s presidential candidate. Certainly, many members of the coalition supported Häkkäs as a candidate, thinking in this way. However, there is a more multidimensional pattern in the background.

From Petteri Orpo’s tip, Alexander Stubb is certainly a qualified and experienced candidate – but also suitable.

The Prime Minister’s Party, the coalition, has experienced hard times at the beginning of the government campaign. The racism surrounding the government partner Basic Finns seems to hit the support of the coalition the hardest. At least that’s what Yle’s latest said support surveywhere the coalition came down by as much as 2.3 percentage points.

The support of basic Finns seems to be much less affected by the commotion.

Petteri Orpo might think that the candidacy of Alexander Stubb, who is known as a liberal and internationalist, would underline the ideological differences between the coalition and basic Finns – somehow it would remind the voters that the coalition is not completely falling apart.

However, the main reason seems to be related to practical government work.

If the coalition’s party government had decided on Monday that the party would hold a member vote on the presidential candidate, Alexander Stubb would have been left out of the race. He has reportedly told Orpo that he does not agree to the membership vote.

Therefore, only Antti Häkkänen would have been in the membership vote.

Häkkänen and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Elina Valtonen have been at the top of Petteri Orpo’s follower exchange for years. Either of the current vice-presidents will probably become the next president of the coalition.

And if Häkkänen had been nominated in the membership vote, it is very likely that Valtonen would have signed up for it as well. Valtonen could not have let Häkkäs alone gather fame and publicity as a presidential candidate.

The membership vote would have become a kind of primary election for the next chairman of the coalition. It would have been extremely difficult from Prime Minister Orpo’s point of view.

After all, Orpo, as prime minister, is trying by all means to get his government’s work started properly. If the two key ministers of the coalition had used the next few weeks for mutual mediation, the start of the government’s work would have been even more difficult and delayed.

But why did Antti Häkkänen go solo like this?

It’s certainly not a spur of the moment thing. Häkkänen is known as a cautious and thoughtful politician who avoids risks.

However, he took the risk now. At least in principle, it can be considered a kind of risk to challenge the chairman of the party in this way in public.

Apparently, Häkkänen calculated that Orpo could practically do nothing for him. After all, Häkkänen is one of the most popular politicians in the coalition. And Häkkä certainly doesn’t mind if Orpo’s position weakens a bit. Namely, it can be assumed to speed up the moment when Orpo steps down as chairman.

One of the basic principles of politics concerns timing. After all, popularity doesn’t last forever. As a hereditary prince or princess, many politicians have waited for the right moment to rise to the top spot. And in many cases it has also been left to wait, because the right moment has never come.

If you wait too long, momentum can pass. Popularity will inevitably turn to decline at some point, when new politicians rise from the background to the limelight.

That’s probably why Häkkänen did his operation. He got his name in the papers and also the idea of ​​himself in bigger positions in the minds of the voters.

Besides, in Häkkänen’s opinion, it probably doesn’t hurt that you can have a good chat afterwards. If Alexander Stubb is not elected president of the republic in the winter, Häkkänen’s supporters can say with hindsight that it could have been different if Häkkänen had been a candidate.

It’s a good percussive weapon against Orpo if necessary.