The low weight of the BBVA Research industry and the foreseeable moderation in consumption will hinder growth in the Region of Murcia this year and next. According to the latest BBVA Research barometer, the increase in GDP will be the lowest of all the communities this year and next. Specifically, the study forecasts an increase of 1% in 2023, the lowest in Spain along with Asturias. In 2024, the rise would be 2.4%, the worst data and the same as Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura.
The data for the Region of Murcia is far from the national dynamics, for which BBVA Research has raised the growth forecast to 1.6% this year, an improvement driven by the communities with a strong weight in the industry. That is, Navarra, Galicia, the Basque Country, Castilla y León, Catalonia and the Valencian Community, regions closely linked to the automotive sector. The report highlights that, on the other hand, the drought “harms progress in the southern communities most closely linked to agriculture”, such as the Region of Murcia.
The outlook, therefore, is less optimistic for the Region of Murcia, which is also among the communities most dependent on consumption, which in 2024 will be weighed down by the rise in interest rates. For this reason, BBVA Research has lowered the GDP growth forecast by 0.8% for next year compared to the previous barometer.
In fact, uncertainty and the rise in interest rates will already generate a drop in housing transactions this year, mainly in northern communities, due to low dynamism in the labor market.
Employment
The study underlines that after a significant slowdown in employment in the second half of 2022, affiliation to Social Security shows signs of strength in the first quarter of this year. BBVA Research forecasts that all the autonomous communities will return to positive job creation rates. The Canary Islands, Madrid, the Valencian Community and Catalonia will be the ones that lead the ranking of employment generation in Spain.
#BBVA #Research #forecasts #Region #Murcia #lowest #national #increase #GDP