Scientists expected that a strong earthquake would happen in Turkey, and even predicted that its magnitude would reach 8 points, Izvestia found out. In particular, in the latest medium-term forecast, published in January by the Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the epicenter of the current earthquake was accurately indicated. Listening to scientists’ forecasts is hindered by insufficient communication between specialists and authorities in different countries, experts say. Meanwhile in the coming days, repeated strong shocks may occur in the earthquake zone in Turkey and Syria, Russian seismologists told Izvestia. And less tangible aftershocks will continue for several months.
May drag on
In the area of the earthquake in Turkey and Syria, new shocks should be expected in the coming days, Russian experts told Izvestia. Moreover, they can be both stronger than the previous ones, and weaken, emphasized Alexander Gulyaev, senior researcher at the laboratory of seismometry of the Institute of Geophysics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
An earthquake of magnitude 7.7 began on the night of February 6 in the Turkish province of Kahramanmarash. The first shock was followed by a second, similar in strength to the first. In the language of science, this is called an earthquake swarm – a type of seismic activity in which several full-fledged shocks occur in a short time in one place, explained “Izvestia” associate professor of the Department of Physics of Moscow State University, seismologist Anna Lyusina.
– In the near future, it is worth waiting for new shocks, there may also be aftershocks – repeated shocks of lesser strength than the main one, — said the expert.
What is happening, according to scientists, is explained by the fact that the North Anatolian fault passes through the territory of Turkey and Greece. It is he who makes the region very dangerous – about every 30 years there are major seismic events. Earthquakes happen when plates break, which are constantly moving and rubbing against each other. When the plates break and strong destructive shocks occur, Vladimir Smirnov, head of the Department of Earth Physics, said.
— The size of the focal zone [нынешнего землетрясения] was 150-200 kilometers, in shape it looks like an elongated ellipse, the perceptible zone is usually about three to five times larger. In it, the shocks are felt by people, and quite strongly. Tremors in a more distant zone are recorded only by special seismic equipment, the scientist said.
The magnitude of the fluctuation at the same distance from the source depends on the type of soil. If the house stands on loose soil, it will stagger more, if it is less on a solid stone foundation, for example, a rock. The earthquake in Turkey occurred at a depth of about 10 kilometers, in fact, near the surface itself, which is why it has such strong consequences, the expert concluded.
Aftershocks of weak strength in the disaster area will continue for many days, if not months, because the system of faults and blocks of the earth’s crust must somehow adapt itself to the new situation, Vladimir Kosobokov, senior researcher at the Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is sure.
The earthquake that happened is one of the strongest in the world. Few of these occur per year. The magnitude on the Richter scale (used to measure the strength of earthquakes. – “Izvestia”) was from 7.7 to 8 points. Wherein according to the Mercalli earthquake intensity scale (determines the intensity of an earthquake based on destruction data. – Izvestia), its strength was 11 points out of 12 possible, — said Vladimir Kosobokov.
Forecast for years
Experts expected similar events in the zone of the current earthquake and even predicted that its magnitude would reach 8 points, explained Anna Lusina. However, due to the lack of established communication between specialists and the authorities, the warnings of scientists did not reach those who make decisions.
According to Vladimir Kosobokov, there is always an opportunity to prepare for such events. In the months before the earthquake, seismologists did not record anything unusual in the region. However, longer-term estimates for some seismological indicators indicated that the area was entering a dangerous state.
There is a “Code of Ethics for Earthquake Forecasting”, it was adopted in Strasbourg in 1991 at a conference under the auspices of the Council of Europe. This is not a legally binding document, but a kind of appeal to scientists. Its essence is that if a particular scientist has data that a strong earthquake will occur somewhere, then he should not report this to the media, but discuss it in his organization. And if the scientific community in this organization decides that this information deserves attention, then the data goes further – to the ministries. And already there they decide whether to contact the leadership of the country in whose territory a strong seismic event is predicted.
In Russia, this problem is dealt with by a specialized council, which receives forecasts from scientists, in particular, from the Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, where they conduct a medium-term forecast of the seismological situation around the world. The results of their calculations are sent every six months to the world’s leading geophysicists. The last mailing was sent in January – it also indicated the epicenter of the current earthquake as a potentially dangerous zone.
As of 20:00 on February 6, the death toll in Turkey reached 1,541, and another 9,733 were injured. In Syria, according to the country’s Ministry of Health, 538 people became victims of the tragedy, another 1353 were injured. Tremors were felt in Libya, Israel, Armenia, Iraq, and were even recorded in Greenland. Dozens of countries have announced the dispatch of rescuers and aid to Syria and Turkey. In the near future, Russian rescuers will also fly there.
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